On 15 September, Australia, UK, and the USA announced a historic trilateral security Pact, AUKUS, under which, the US and the UK agreed to help Australia develop and deploy nuclear-powered (not nuclear-armed) submarines. The US had so far shared the technology only with the UK. Australia becomes the seventh nation after the US, UK, China, France, Russia, and India, to use nuclear-powered submarines. Once operational, AUKUS would add to the military presence of the western powers in the Indo-Pacific.
The pact does not overtly name any target country, but it does not require much imagination to conclude that it is aimed at countering an increasingly belligerent China. It is not just that Chinese forces continue to occupy parts of Indian territory in Ladakh, or that its assertiveness poses a threat to freedom of navigation in the South China Sea; the Chinese approach to Hong Kong and Taiwan have also raised concerns. With Australia too, China has been engaged in a trade dispute for over a year and has hit Australian exports of coal, barley, meat, lobsters and wine with punitive trade restrictions after Australia called for an independent investigation of the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The AUKUS pact also covers areas like AI and cyber. It is different from the Five Eyes which focuses on intelligence sharing among five countries, USA, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand and traces its origin to the Atlantic Charter, issued in August 1941. It also differs from ANZUS, or Australia, New Zealand and United States Security Treaty, an agreement signed in 1951 to protect the security of the Pacific.
For UK, the Pact can be seen as its coming out statement. It is a step in the direction of realising Global Britain that has been a vision for post-Brexit Britain’s foreign policy. PM Boris Johnson spoke of the hundreds of skilled jobs that would be created by this deal, while Tom Tugendhat, chair of the British Commons’ Foreign Affairs Committee, called it a “game-changer”. AUKUS also creates a psychological decoupling of the UK from the EU, whose foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said that the development obliges the EU to think of “European strategic autonomy”.
France was particularly aggrieved as it had a contract for the supply of conventional Attack-class submarines to Australia involving A$90 billion. The French government expressed its deep unhappiness by recalling its ambassadors from the US and Australia, while its Foreign Minister described it as a “stab in the back”. Clarifications coming out of Australia indicate problems with the French contract including long delays. France also felt aggrieved given its longstanding interest in the Indo-Pacific where French territories are located. The Australian view is that its decision was determined by national interest. The conventional submarines are smaller and able to go closer to the coastlines and estuaries of rivers without detection. However, the need to surface periodically makes them easy to spot in large expanses of the ocean in the Indo-Pacific. Nuclear powered submarines, on the other hand, can go for long distances without the need to surface so long as they have food stocks and depending on the needs of the crew.
Expectedly, China reacted strongly, but the strong comments of the official mouthpiece, ‘Global Times’ once again demonstrated aggressiveness, even arrogance, which validates the need for such a pact. It warned Australia to avoid "provocation" or China would "certainly punish it with no mercy", adding that "Australian troops are also most likely to be the first batch of western soldiers to waste their lives in the South China Sea".
ASEAN countries are worried about the introduction of nuclear technology in the Indo Pacific and fear the start of an arms race. With concerns on freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, AUKUS and the Chinese reaction to it, heighten tensions in the region. Taiwan has understandably welcomed the development.
India has traditionally been opposed to militarisation of the Indian Ocean, but Chinese belligerence has made it prudent for India to join hands with friends in the Indo Pacific through the Quad, consisting of India, US, Japan and Australia, soon to have a physical summit in Washington. A stronger maritime presence of India’s friends and like-minded fellow democracies may add some caution to the Chinese posture towards its neighbours. The divisions created within Europe post AUKUS are not a good sign and need to be bridged post haste.
