The Select Committee on Exiting the European Union on which I serve in Parliament has this week has published its third report on The progress of the UK’s negotiations on EU withdrawal: December 2017 to March 2018.
It’s a sobering report which shows in stark terms the consequences of Theresa May’s failure to get a grip on the divisions at the heart of her Government. Whether it’s on the withdrawal agreement, transition arrangements or future partnership, fundamental questions still remain for our nation’s prosperity and security and indeed the vision of a global Britain.
Over the last few years I have talked to businesses across the world about how we can increase trade links with Britain. Feedback from Indian businesses including through meetings with CII members has been that one of the attractions of investing in the UK has been access to the EU single market. This means the ability to get the best talent from and sell goods to a market of 500million. Britain of course will be navigating new waters as it withdraws from the EU. But those advocating a hard Brexit have failed to also answer the question as to what the investment losses could be and over what time scale new trade arrangements will fill the gap.
It is just over six months to go till October when we expect a final deal which will be put to Parliament for a vote. But it’s increasingly apparent that the Prime Minister has mishandled and miscalculated the last 21 months. The risk to our businesses and jobs is now greater than ever. EU negotiators have recently confirmed their belief that not everything will be negotiated by March 2019. If substantial aspects of the Future Partnership are still to be agreed in October, it will be time to consider seeking an extension of Article 50.
The Government has miscalculated the complexities of Brexit and the time it will take to address them. It has failed even to model the impact of its own preferred plan on the economy. That is unacceptable – Britain’s families and businesses deserve better. The Treasury’s own forecasting of the main Brexit options shows all options leave our nation worse off. Last week the Chancellor in his Spring Statement also confirmed that any savings from Brexit will go to paying for ourselves for much of what the EU does now.
Other EU nations are now planning how to take the most of the opportunities that Brexit will provide for them. It was not a surprise that President Macron wooed Prime Minister Modi by saying he wanted France to be India’s “closest strategic partner in Europe”. A deal was signed worth $16bn on security and defence matters.
Macron himself is undertaking major immigration reforms. It is still impossible to understand why May’s Government refuses to review its net migration target or exclude students from the figures – a policy that has impacted students from India also and has been damaging to our economy. The last Labour government granted 60,000 Indian student visas. After 7 years of a Conservative Government, the figure now at just over 14,000 after 7 years of a Conservative government. Students in our universities today are often the foundations of our trade links tomorrow.
We have also seen the plight of Tech high-skilled workers from India on a Tier-1 visas are being subjected to confusing treatment of the Immigration Rules under paragraph 322(5). Recently I called for the Home Office to have a full investigation to why this has heavily affected Asian workers, and will be seeking a debate in the House of Commons to highlight the matter further.
If Theresa May wants to make real her promise of global Britain, it’s got to be done by deeds not words. Her words are undermined by the choices her Government which are weakening our place in the world. Our strong relationship with India over culture and the economy should be a beacon for how we move forward with stronger relationships with growing economies and it won’t be France alone that seeks to benefit from Britain’s own goals. But Britain’s strength and attractiveness to other countries will in part be affected by how May handles Brexit and how strong our ties with the EU remain. She must genuinely puts the needs of our economy first, not the ideology of the Eurosceptics in her party. The next 12 months are set to be critical.
