Unrelenting March of Reform UK

Many electorates might have missed a very important government announcement at the end of December 2024.  Namely, the reorganisation of many local councils.  The grooming gang’s fiasco has allowed this important news to go under the radar, but I feel in the weeks to come, this will gain momentum.

For clarity, local elections should be held in May 2025.All seats in the 21 county councils and ten unitary authorities in England should be up for election. And of course, I am sure the small detail of these being the first major elections post the general election has not gone unnoticed. They stand to give a rather interesting view into the state of play of the political landscape.

The spanner in the works being that the government has given all local councils affected by the proposed local government reorganisation the option to postpone the election by a year, or in some cases, even longer.Theoretically at least,councils if they played the game correctlycould kick them into the long grass to avoid voter dissatisfaction.

Government has asked the affected councils to indicate if they wish the elections to be postponed. Nearly 50% of the councils have or are very much interested in postponing these local elections.

For your reference the table below shows the councils that are likely to seek the postponement of the elections:

Do you notice anything interesting?  Yep, the vast majority are Conservative controlled councils.

The unrelenting march of Reform UK across the nation has been seismic.  We don’t know if this is real support, or a moment in time surge of dissatisfaction in the two main parties. However, given Reform UK are now neck and neck with both the leading parties in the polls means squeaky bum time for local councils,councillors and the main political parties. Reform UK could literally wipe out the establishment and take over many of these local councils.

Interestingly the Conservative shadow local government secretary Kevin Hollinrake said: “No council should be bullied or blackmailed into local government restructuring. It should not be imposed by top-down Whitehall fiat”. Yet it seems Conservative councils are leading the way in wishing to postpone the elections.

I suspect the Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf probably got it right in his assessment when he said: "Labour and the Tories are so terrified of Reform's rise that they are colluding to rob the British people of their democratic rights."

It is estimated that some 9m people might not get an opportunity to express their views through the ballot box this May.

For the Tories these local elections are a nightmare.  For Labour it could be equally bad given the first 6 months of Keir Starmer’s tenure has been the worst of any recent prime minister.  Add to that the treachery of Labour pre-election promises and what they have actually delivered post-elections. Keir Starmer's net favourability rating has hit a new low of -41 in mid-December, and it is still falling.

Starmer has become synonymous with a politicianwho breaks promises and changes his mind at a whim. Things like the £25 billion tax hike by raising National Insurance, 20% Inheritance Tax to family businesses and family farms, no inquiry into grooming gangs, and the bond market going into meltdown don’t help restore any confidence in his leadership.

The Tories are also not in any good standing. They let the nation down badly. They had more than a decade to do the right thing, instead, they wasted the mandate and allowed out of control illegal migration, EHRC, policing our streets, and rampant hate marchersto get out of control.

And whilst the two main parties exhibit their traditional privilege, Reform UK has taken an unrelenting march forward by championing the voice of the masses. Add to it the fact that now we will have President Trump on the other side of the pond, and with him, Elon Musk who has the intelligence, the way, and the means to affect change not just in the USA, but anywhere in the world. So when Trump and Elonthrash Labour and support Reform UK, you know the potential for change is now on the cards.  Do I think Reform UK are ready for governance, the answer is a simple NO.  And therein the nation is placed in jeopardy.

This is why I would probably think that it might be better for these local elections to go ahead as planned for May 25.  Yes the Tories will be decimated, and no doubt even Labour will get a good kicking.  The winners will be Reform UK.  Let Reform UK have the next few years to govern at council level.  If they do good, then come the general election in 2029 the established parties will be in trouble.  However, if they make a right mess of local governance, it gives the electorate a glimpse of how bad it could be if they were to ever take charge of Parliament.

This is one of those times in history when no one really has any idea what might transpire. But for the rest of us, it really is entertaining to see squeaky bum time the politicians are going through.