How the world can change in less than a week. I refer of course to the collapse ofPresident Bashar al-Assad’sdictatorship in Syria. Pundits of every colour have come out of the woodwork with commentary on events unfolding. Most declare themselves as experts in middle eastern politics. The truth however is often very different as we have seen in the past. The media commentators, and now the social media parrots, will generate a lot of hot air for consumption by the masses. So let me declare upfront, my piece today is pure speculation.
The first question I asked myself was, why now? I mean this mess in Syria has been on-going since the days of Hafez al-Assad who was in power for 29 years, and then his son, Bashar al-Assad who took over in 2000. For the past14 years Syria has been in a civil war and now within a matter of days we have seen thetakeover of Syria by the ‘rebels’. ‘Rebels’, an interesting term being used by people in the west. Let me define who they really are, they are Islamist terrorists. The whitewashing of their extremism and their brutality by the west is rather interesting. The west has a history of dictating terminology that suits their duplicitous political agenda.
Of course, we have also seen another huge earthquake in America with Ex-President Trump coming back to take over the presidency in January. Sodid this have anything to do with events unfolding? Coincidence? Or is there a bigger game plan?
We know that Trump has already stated he expects the Russia-Ukraine war to be sorted very quickly. That will happen whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy likes it or not. Zelenskyy has read the writing on the wall; he will have no choice but to reconcile differences with Moscow and give up territory for peace. Putin will win by putting in place a new Line of Control (LoC) that marks a sort of red line for the west, that no longer can they expand NATO otherwise there will be consequences. Of course, lest people have forgotten, decades ago it was the west that promised Mikhail Gorbachev that it would not expand NATO if Moscow agreed to German unification and an end to the ‘cold war’. Remember, it was the west that broke the agreement.
Having wasted billions of dollars trying to hoodwink their own citizens into thinking they are supporting Ukraine and winning the war against Russia, they realise that they are in fact losing it. They need a way out, as does Russia since this madness has also depleted its own resources. We are therefore left with the age-old classic of diplomacy, give with one hand and take with the other.
It seems the sacrifice of parts of Ukraine are a payment to Russia moving out of Syria and allowing the western backed ‘rebels’ to march in and take over Syria. By so doing, in one move they have destabilised the Iranian establishment. The Shia enterprise in the middle east will be curtailed as the Sunni phase gathers momentum.
What we must never forget is that all rebels in the middle east are Islamist terrorists. All dictatorships in the middle east are Islamist. And all Islamists are either Sunni or Shia, both intent in destroying each other, and in wiping out people of other faiths. It won’t take long before we hear of the persecution of Christians in Syria!
The litmus test for Syria is simple, if the rebels coming into power are good for the nation, then we should see the millions of Syrian refugees rushing to get back to their country. Somehow, I don’t see that happening.
The picture developsfurther when we considerthe geo-political position of Israel. Israel will prevail no matter what the Shia’s or the Sunni’s attempt to do. It has already dismantled the Palestinian Hamas terror regime, and it has put massive dents in the Hezbollah enterprise of Iran in Lebanon.
Nations like UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordon, Egypt are making sure they stay on the right side. UAE becoming the nerve centre for international business and finance, Saudi Arabia from being the energy supplier to the world,to now rapidly becoming the centre for international sports, Egypt maintaining its holiday destination vibe and Jordon the late comer to the party trying its best not to mess it all up. Nations like Qatar have more money than commonsense. Their tacit support for terrorism is well known. It’s only a matter of time before under the pressure of regional politics it either changes dramatically, or it is dismantled by external forces.
Some may ask, can we now assume that Libya, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen are in the gutter and will remain so for decades to come. The answer, yes.
And in all of this chaos where does Turkey sit? It wants to become part of the EU, and it also wants to be the leader for Islamic nationsby establishing a caliphate. As it stands, it has gained tremendously by the fall of Assad’s dictatorship. However, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would be well advised if at this crucial time he simmers down on his customary rhetoric and not make himself or Turkey the new target!
Is this all just pure speculation?I guess time will tell!
