Great Britain has become Great by playing long term
Great Britain, an island nation in the north west corner of Europe, comparatively a small size entity has not only become one of the richest countries on the planet, but its influence and even power is recognised in the far corners of the world.
In The Times (Monday 19th October), the cartoonist has taken the liberty to put forward a view. I, with all my reservations, would readily accept The Times as one of the living ethos of the British journalism. I admire The Times, but I do accept that I'm editor of Asian Voice perhaps because I'm it's publisher too.
Great Britain is a living democracy and its basic values are fairness and tolerance, and its most effective vehicle, both internally and internationally is give and take, some call it diplomacy. Britain excels in diplomacy.
Chinese president, Xi Jinping, has arrived in London. He has been received with all the pomp and ceremony. Early this year, Prince William went all the way to Beijing, carrying the personal invitation from Her Majesty, the Queen. Few weeks ago, Chancellor George Osborne went to China and spent some eight days cultivating the leadership.
Britain needs huge investments to develop its infrastructure. China has almost limitless funds and is looking for avenues to invest not only for financial gains, but to spread its influence. It is the same old story. It's economy, stupid.
One needs to look back at the Sini-British relationship. In the 19th century, from the jumping board of the British India, Britain sent its gunboats through the rivers deep into the Chinese mainland. Opium trade was the attraction. China accepted British hegemony and Hong Kong and some other possessions were handed over to Britain. Britain, to its credit, developed the rocky place called Hong Kong as a trading post, as well as a staging post over the decades, where China was ready to accept its unique system of wealth-creation. With the rise of communism and at the end of the Second World War, China became a Republic. China, then an ally of Soviet Union, waged wars in Korea and Vietnam, defeating the USA, France and western alliance finally in 1979.
USA and Britain have a unique relationship where they work together in tandem over at least 150 years. American war of independence was waged against Great Britain. Britain was defeated but won the war in the long run. Strange, but it is true. By the end of the nineteenth century, USA was the world's biggest economic power, but its political influence was, more or less, confined to that hemisphere. In the First World War, Britain received huge material and some military help from the USA. And Germany was defeated. Within twenty years, in the Second World War, America, eventually became the leading member of the alliance and Germany in Europe and Japan in the far east were defeated. America paid a heavy price in both money and manpower.
But the victors, mainly USA poured billions of dollars in Germany and Japan and in no time, these countries recovered. Not only that, they became staunch allies of USA and played very active role to halt the spread of communism and soviet influence. Diplomacy, the vehicle of democratic nations was deployed when everything else was failing. American secretary of states, Henry Kissinger, secretly went to Pekin and par-laid with Chau-En-Lai and other leaders. The package was simple. China politically can remain a communist dictatorship, and at the same time, its economic policy is more or less capitalist. A command economy created a miracle. Human rights and other values were and are put aside. So what? It did not bother western democracies to willingly work with China and allow it to become the giant as it is now.
China has just under four trillion dollars at its disposal, and over a trillion dollars is funding the U.S. government borrowing binge. China is using its financial muscle to spread its influence.
But China also is aware of the famous American Doctrine of the former secretary States of defence, Mr Melon, and the importance of sea power in both trade terms and defence mechanism.
In the recent past, China is strengthening its navy so fast and so threateningly, especially in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore, as well as Vietnam, all feel threatened and only recently, president Obama has announced some daring exercise by American navy in the South China Sea.
India is also involved with the navies of some of the above mentioned countries, in an exercise called Malabar. Clearly intending to keep Indian Ocean free from Chinese hegemony. Let's leave all that aside. As it has happened with other countries, the British diplomacy would in its own unique way, help mellow Chinese aggressive tendency in a different way as well. Look at the openness of Great Britain. Nuclear power was up until recently a top "secret" establishment, not available to other powers than staunch allies. Chinese president and the British prime minister will sign documents for a huge Chinese investment of over £20 billion for a nuclear power station. Other projects to be finalised by Thursday would total investment of over £100 billion. China has got the money and Britain needs it.
Great Britain of today is not India of the 1950s. “Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai” was the buzzword of the day and the panchsheel agreement was just on paper from the Chinese point of view, but India or under the influence of a poet prime minister, pandit Nehru, took it up as a gospel. The sudden and nasty attack by thousands of Chinese troops on India in 1962 was and has remained a painful lesson for India, the new government of Narendra Modi is much different. It is rapidly building its defence services and by 2027, it expects its navy forces of ultra modern calibre of some 200 (just under the present strength of China). India also has opened its defence sector production for private internal and international investments. Modi government is much more pragmatic and determined.
In three weeks time, prime minister Cameron will welcome, felicitate and do business with prime minister Modi. At the root of the diplomacy, now economy is of prime importance. Great Britain is Great. Maybe, India China has some border disputes, but this triangle relationship is going to be worth watching. Perhaps with a bit more optimism, I am hopeful of a relationship which could be win-win for all, if there are adequate checks and balances.
China is awkwardly very successful, but it has its own serious problems of extremism and terrorism, as well as real issues with the children of the migrants who hail from rural backgrounds. Command economy has helped China to come to the present level, but the change is inevitable. The aspirations of a human being cannot be locked up forever. In that area, Indian democracy with all its restraints has some positive attributes.
In this race between a hare and a tortoise, the end result is not certain. British, astute there are, they will certainly derive their own lessons from the cartoon of Monday's Times. Overall, the net gain of Sino-British partnership seems to be positive. Let's welcome, let's hope for the best, and be prepared for the worst also.
-CB
