When the kitchen gets too hot…
In about two weeks time British Prime Minister David Cameron will have a heart to heart talk with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The British Council who have been very active in India for several decades have said ‘the UK must keep building a modern relationship with India”. Indeed this is true from all the various parameters. Both Prime Ministers are, to put it rather mildly, obsessed with their mission and there are some similarities and several contrasts.
David Cameron was born with a silver spoon and is blessed with a beautiful, sensitive and sensible wife Samantha whereas Narendra Modi was born, as everybody knows, in a backward caste with challenging economic circumstances. Prime Minister Modi is a little bit older than David Cameron. Both won the last general elections in their respective countries against all odds, and yet were able to have a working majority for their parties. India and the UK have two-chamber Parliaments. A simple majority in the Commons or the Lokh Sabha but the upper-hand of the upper-houses - here the Lords and in India the Rajya Sabha - creates huge problems for both the Prime Ministers and their governments.
On Monday the House of Lords, perhaps for the first time in the last 100 years, rejected a bill approved by the Commons on economic matters. Last Tuesday duly elected MP Heidi Allen spoke out against tax credit cuts in her maiden Commons speech. For a young MP to defy the Whip is courage of the highest order. Normally every MP has other career priorities and they act accordingly. On Monday in the Lords debate several Lords criticised the tax credit cuts. Church leaders followed suit by laying assault on the Chancellor in the last few days, not normally seen in the recents years. When the Chancellor, in his zest to save some £4 billion from 4 million families who depend on the tax credit and reduce on average their income by some £1000 each, could create immense hardships and pain especially to people on low income, with disabilities and single parents.
Similarly, the British Prime Minister also faces some serious problems with his Europe sceptic MPs and the issues of terrorism, a huge migration from the Middle East into Europe, the unease in relationship with Saudi Arabia are also headaches he has to contend with. The Chilcot Inquiry episode, to put it most mildly, is a real and mind-boggling problem for not only the British government and the establishment but more importantly for former Prime Minister Tony Blair. Tony Blair has apologised after the families demanded an apology for losing a large number of troops in what was an unwinable war launched without due care and concern. Several respected commentators also warned politicians at the time not to drag Her Majesty The Queen into this matter.
Prime Minister Modi also has several hills to climb. The Bihari election, now in its final phase, is almost a litmus test for not only Narendra Modi but also for Indian democracy. Prime Minister Modi has several urgent matters to attend to including the recent 7.5 earthquake in the neighbourhood, the difficulties with Nepal and especially his attempt to reign in his Hhindu supremacist allies and the decades old caste based Reservation and Quota Policy which has proved to be impractical and inevitably creating a vicious circle.
The most important issue facing Narendra Modi is the forthcoming state elections in Bihar, a state with 100 million residents. Bihar, historically, was a leading state and people were renowned for their scholarship, cultural state and economy, mainly dependent on agriculture in a well watered region from the rivers coming down from the Himalayas coupled with well developed mining industry. But that was up until the first few years of independent India. The Congress party ruled the State for about thirty years and turned it into a caste based and vote bank politics. When Lalu Yadav was in power and was prohibited by law ran the state with his wife as chief minister is recused by many to have turned Bihar into a “jungle raj”. Nitish Kumar has been running the state for the last ten years, first seven in alliance with the BJP. This election between the BJP and NDA on one side and JD(U), RJD, Congress and some other caste based outfits is so crucial for Narendra Modi to win that he is addressing 17 public meetings in 6 days. The vast and enthusiastic crowds give hope for Modi to win for his party in Bihar just as he achieved nationwide in May 2014.
Modi is eyeing the poverty stricken State (the State of Bihar) in his drive to unlock economic reforms. Prime Minister Modi has been stopped from implementing his ideas about a national uniform sales tax, requisite land reforms for rapid infrastructure development as well as the labour laws for rapid and fair industrial progress.
Let us assume that Cameron and Modi will talk about the expanding range of cooperation between the two countries and come to a new format for more cooperation for mutual benefit. But they will revert, possibly, at the impediment of the upper hand of both parliaments’ upper houses.
Let us look at the more optimistic signals from those who are detached from their own political or economic ideology. Before that the release of a new book Arun Shaurie on Tuesday is a bombshell against Narendra Modi. He was a cabinet minister in the Vajpayee government and an able Minister too. He is a very intelligent gentleman. One of his books, ‘The false gods’, was denounced and attacked by not only Dalits but by others as well for his expose on Baba Sahib Ambedkar. Mr Shaurie has serious criticisms of the economic policies and performance of the Modi government. His critics now say he has ignored several facts. India has attracted perhaps the largest amount of foreign investment since the advent of the Modi government. The growth of the Indian GDP, well over 7%, is remarkable when China’s is hovering around 6% and the Rupee has remained fairly strong amongst the currencies of all BRICS countries and other main emerging markets. His critics have also more of less said that Arun Shaurie, once a strong supporter of Narendra Modi, has become a harsh critic perhaps because of the sour grapes.
Similar sentiments can easily be expressed by Prime Minister Cameron during their one-to-one tete-a-tete. What is very interesting is that no other visiting foreign political leader has raised such an enthusiasm and expectation as Prime Minister Modi when he arrives here on Thursday 12th November.
Most of our readers may not be aware of the thought process or writings of young Narendra Modi some 40 years ago. He, in his 20s, had to go underground in Gujarat to escape harsh treatment under the emergency declared by the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in June 1975. Narendra Modi wrote several poems, stories and essays in Gujarati which were mainly published in the Sadhana and Chandni magazines. In 1977 Modi wrote a very informative book called “Sangharsh ma Gujarat” (Gujarat in struggle) all those who have read the writings of a young man will certainly be impressed with his spirit of nationhood (Rashtrya prem) devotion to his mother and women (Nari shakti) and especially his compassion. I was privileged to have read almost all his writings at the time. I also believe that the thoughts and the vision of the most formative years of one’s life remain at the core of his/her values and perhaps this is the secret of Narendra Modi’s popularity in India today and with Indians abroad. Like many others I vehemently believe that Prime Minister Modi is the best person to rule India and his unstinting focus, tireless energies and especially his honesty will make a huge difference in the coming years.
Welcome Prime Minister Modi!- CB
