It may be too soon to attempt to carry out an evaluation of the Modi government which will complete its first year on 26th May 2015. Previously, at the end of ten years of UPA government with Dr Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister and Shrimati Sonia Gandhi as the ever present back seat driver, the initial euphoria turned into an exhausted administration. Corruption was the worst culprit, the economic growth had come down from over 8% to under 5% and the Congress party was rudderless. During that Herculean election campaign Narendra Modi proved his talent and skill. The Modi effect was seen all over India and for the first time ever a political party other than Congress was able to have a clear majority in the Lok Sabha, the Lower House of Indian Parliament. Mr Modi has raised huge expectations. Indeed he had even umpteen number of promises for 'achhe din' (the good days are coming). In light of such expectations the first year can not satisfy everyone. However the latest approval rating of Mr Modi is 74%. Any President or Prime Minister of a democratic country would love to have such a good fortune. Fortunes do not happen by chance or overnight. To have all round development in a country of India's size and complexities is an Himalayan challenge. Let us firstly look at the external scenario and then the internal situation.
That Prime Minister Modi was able to invite leaders of the neighbouring countries which itself was a big achievement. One has to accept that with Pakistan the momentum for mutual cooperation has not been sustained primarily because Pakistan, though a democracy, has a military that is in effective control or at least the country's power broker. With Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan the relationship with India has seen a sea-change. This is in sharp contrast to the situation prior to May 2014. Prime Minister Modi has travelled to 19 countries in his first 365 days without any major controversy or mishap – it is not easy but for the first time ever an Indian Prime Minister has been able to establish such a linkage with various countries who have such an important role on the world stage. With Russia Modi's government has been able to strengthen the traditional strong friendship. Previously unknown levels of trust and cooperation has been established with USA, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, France, Germany, Brazil and several others. Narendra Modi's energy and charisma has been impressive and fruitful without any shred of doubt. International relationships in the modern world are an ever changing scenario and even the mightiest nation, for example the USA, experience periodic ups and downs. Suffice is to say that modern India, under Narendra Modi, has been more accepted and perhaps has begun to be respected on the world stage.
Internally the biggest achievement of the Modi government is not the total absence of any scandal of corruption. It is hard to recollect that in the UPA government or previous governments of modern India scandals and corruptions was almost a regular mishap. In the centre state relationship Prime Minister Modi has been able to have good working relationships with political leaders who are not normally friendly with the BJP or the NDA. The biggest problem for the Modi government is that fact that though they have a sizeable majority in the Lok Sabha, in the Upper House, the Rajya Sabha, the BJP and NDA are in the minority. The important legislation of a nationwide sales tax, land legislation for timely development of infrastructure, industry and commerce and similar other crucial subjects have not yet become the law of the land. In a democratic setup such impediments limit the scope of success of other initiatives. The worst is for the common man. In Gujarat the then Chief Minister Modi was able to have rapid development economically and was able to transform the earthquake flattened areas of Kutch in such a short time that the fruits were seen and experienced by the electorate giving Modi such a thumping majority in one election after another. But running the Indian union is a more different than running the state of Gujarat.
What Mr Modi has achieved is enormous increase in aspirations, self confidence and enthusiasm of Indians from north to south and east to west especially amongst youth, women and the backward classes. It is believed by India watchers both abroad as well as the experts in India that all the ground work done by Modi and his government would bare fruits much sooner than expected. With some state elections taking place over the next 12 months it is believed that the composition of the Rajya Sabha will also change to the advantage of Mr Modi and his government. India is a huge country with several contradictions. Her biggest challenge is to steer the course for development and progress within the framework of democracy. No other country has such a challenge nor such an opportunity. India with Modi at her helm as the Prime Minister is on the right course. Time will prove that the optimism and expectations of her people are well placed.
It takes two to tango
In the dance form 'tango' there are always some spectators, some might be supporters and some might not. Prime Minister Modi has just completed the tour of China, South Korea and Mongolia. His three days of deliberation in China have been watched very closely from most of the world's capitals. Some had expected a quick resolution of the border problem between these two Asian giants. Not only are we talking about a border of some 1,500 miles but the history and complexity should make us a bit more patient. With Bangladesh India resolved the border dispute with give and take on both sides. With China there are so many other tentacles to consider. Perhaps we should remember that China has 14 countries on its borders and its best relationship only is with Pakistan. India, on the other hand, has serious problems only with Pakistan amongst its 7 neighbouring countries. Let us look back at the America-China relationship over the last 60 years.
When the Communists formed the government in mainland China, and even before, America had serious difficulties with the Chinese government. In the early 50s during the Korean War the American might were not the victors because of primary support in both men and material by communist China. Eventually America had to concede the partition of Korea. In Vietnam the Vietcong gave a bloody defeat to the French and later to America. In the late 60s and 70s America sent over half a million soldiers to Vietnam. For what? For a very shameful defeat and hurried withdrawal. But Americans planned to recoup through trade and commerce what was lost on the battlefield. Vice President Richard Nixon secretly went to Beijing with the help of Pakistan Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and parlayed with erstwhile enemies Zhou Enlai and Deng Xiaoping. In 1979 Communist China embarked on a capitalist route. In a very short time China became a factory for the whole world. American consumers were importing some $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. Millions of Chinese got employment. Huge corporations made gigantic profits. The cost of living in America remained steady or decreased aiding the American economy. It was a win-win situation for both America and China.
Today, the Foreign Currency Reserve of China is a little short of $4,000 billion. What is not commonly known is that almost $1,400 billion of Chinese money is supporting the American treasury bonds and such borrowings. In the last 36 years poor China has become very rich. The labour cost is rising rapidly and China also needs attractive investment potentials abroad as well as markets in the newly developing countries. Both China and India have complementary potentials. India has demography, demand and development. These three D's can be an attraction to the C for Capital of China. Yes, China betrayed India in 1962 when the Red Army attacked India from Tibet and thousands of Chinese marched up to Tezpur some 200 miles within India's border. That was a shock and shame for Pundit Nehru, his heart was broken. But India of 2015 is by far a more different in terms of military preparedness today, China knows it as so do the country's other friends and foes as well.
It is suicidal for India and China to go to war. So the best synergy is through trade and commerce. Border disputes, or even an alliance between Pakistan and China can be kept on the back burner but with the rapid industrial and economic development of India, China has the potential to become the best and readily available partner. As it happened between America and China and as it has happened so clearly in Europe, a blood shocked continent which has experienced a historic transformation into the European Union, economic integration can and should create better days ahead for both India and China to the advantage of both their peoples as well as for the global wellness too. Such a transformation does not happen by chance or by wishful thinking alone. It requires painful decisions, enormous perseverance and patience.
Let's look briefly at the other D– democracy. China's rapid development owes a lot to the one party dictatorship. India is different. India has to remain totally committed to its constitution and democratic norms. Infrastructure as well as other developments are therefore delayed and one has to accept the reality. But the price is worth paying. Eventually India will reach better standards of living and the time lapse due to its chosen path of democracy is going to be an added advantage in the long run. South Korea was able to transform into a democracy in a much better way. Developed China will inevitably yearn for democracy. The process is going to bring it enormous stress and strain in that huge country. Perhaps India's partnership with China will too.
- CB
