When India abstained from the UN vote against Russia, it caused a great deal of international consternation. New Delhi had moved closer to its Western allies in recent years, so the decision to "sit on the fence" was surprising.
However, a recent call between PMs Modi and Johnson may suggest that India's stance on Russia is shifting.
Modi and Johnson Speak
On Tuesday 22nd of March, PM Modi and Boris Johnson made contact to discuss the situation in Ukraine. The international community had expressed concern that India had abstained from voting on a UN resolution against the Russian invasion.
Of course, in geopolitics, things aren't that simple. Russia and India were Cold War allies. Furthermore, India is reliant on Russia for defensive weapons and crude oil. But realpolitik aside, the failure to stand with the West could push India towards Moscow.
On the call, the two PMs discussed the situation in Ukraine. PM Modi underlined India's stance, pleading for a ceasefire and a return to diplomacy.
Modi spoke firmly about his belief in respect for international law. He further noted that respecting the sovereignty and territory of all states was an essential component of the current world order — without explicitly mentioning Ukraine.
However, in his statement, Johnson suggested that the two leaders agreed that Russia needed to follow the UN charter. What’s more, he indicated that they agreed that Russia must respect Ukraine's territorial sovereignty.
While there is some disparity between the two statements, it does suggest a softening of PM Modi's approach.
Biden: India "Somewhat Shaky"
Of course, US President Joe Biden has amped up the pressure on India. He noted that out of the Quad — US, India, Japan, and Australia — India was the only member who was "somewhat shaky."
While New Delhi has called for peace, it has stopped short of condemning Russia for the invasion. A call between Australia and India on Monday saw New Delhi outline its case.
In short, with the perennial issues with Pakistan and a stand-off against China on the Himalayan border, India needs military hardware. Additionally, aligning with the West creates an awkward position in light of Chinese tensions.
Conclusion
India's neutrality on Ukraine has put the country in a difficult spot. Sitting on the fence is a diplomatic gamble that might not pay off. Bilateral trade between the US and India sits at $150bn, while trade with Russia is a comparatively small $8bn.
Indian relations with the US and the UK have rarely been better. However, as India drags its heels on the Ukraine invasion, these mutually beneficial close ties could sour. If the West wants India to be closer, they simply have to offer replacements for Russian hardware at the same price. It’s a small price to pay to remove India from the clutches of Russian influence – oh and support on vetos the way Russia does on the UN Security Council. Between France, US and UK – surely that’s something all three want.
