After Labour’s landslide victory in July, Sir Keir Starmer stood outside No. 10 and declared that the work of change had begun. The new Prime Minister promised to create wealth in every community, restore the NHS, cut energy bills for good, and enhance the security of Britain’s borders while making streets safer.
However, the reality has been starkly different, as Starmer’s early premiership has been marred by scandals and escalating economic concerns. According to a YouGov poll conducted on October 8, his favourability ratings have fallen to their lowest level since he became Labour leader in 2020, with his popularity continuing to decline since taking office as Prime Minister. Over six in ten Britons now express disapproval of Starmer, as reported by YouGov.
Public outrage has surged in response to reports detailing accommodation costs, pricey glasses, Taylor Swift concert tickets, football match tickets, clothing, and various other perks he has accepted, especially as many citizens grapple with a cost-of-living crisis. Equally concerning is Prime Minister Starmer's apparent appeasement towards unions.
Amid riots, scandals and financial challenges, some of Labour's lesser-known promises have gone unnoticed. In an Instagram reel commemorating Labour’s 100 days in office, Keir Starmer highlighted the issues he inherited from the Conservatives, stating, “Fourteen years is a long time to cause damage, and 100 days isn’t enough to fix it. While we expect to be judged on our ability to address these challenges, actions speak louder than words.”
He outlined some of the steps already taken on the economy, including prioritising growth, securing investment, and delivering the biggest upgrade to workers' rights in a generation to ensure fair pay in the NHS. Starmer mentioned the resolution of junior doctor strikes and the development of a ten-year plan to improve the NHS. On housing, he discussed reforms to planning rules aimed at boosting construction and restoring the dream of home ownership.
Regarding crime and border security, he highlighted measures taken to quell riots with swift sentencing for offenders, the launch of a new border security command to combat human trafficking, and the initiation of a plan to restore neighbourhood policing. He also noted the lifting of the ban on onshore wind, the securing of a record number of clean energy projects, and the launch of Great British Energy, which aims to lower bills and create jobs. On transportation, he mentioned the end of train strikes, the move to bring railways back under public control, and empowering local communities over bus services.
While we have Starmer’s perspective on what he should be judged on and his achievements, here we explore expert and community opinions on the matter.
Experts analyse the first 100 days of change
According to Professor Anand Menon, Director of the UK in a Changing Europe judging any government by its first 100 days is a flawed approach, particularly for this administration, which has faced interruptions due to summer and party conference recesses. However, he acknowledged that these initial days have significantly impacted the Labour government’s public image.
He observed that "three months after that heady electoral victory, the Labour government has lost its gloss," citing prevailing narratives of freebies, chaos in Number 10, backlash against the winter fuel payment decision, and a lack of substantive policy. As a result, both the Prime Minister and his party have seen their popularity decline.
In terms of policy, Professor Menon highlights that Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband have made notable progress, initiating planning reforms and making key appointments to advance the government’s clean power agenda. However, he described an overall sense of a “government on hold as we wait for the budget,” expressing hope that the upcoming budget on October 30 will help the government move past its rocky start. He did however point out that Reeves mishandled her only significant policy announcement thus far, which involved the decision to means-test the winter fuel allowance.
Professor John Curtice, British political scientist and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, echoes the sentiment that the government will remain somewhat stagnant until the budget is released. He noted, “The government's biggest challenge is the fiscal situation, particularly the state of public services and the economy. We’re waiting to see how they reconcile their promise not to raise many taxes with the belief that the public spending framework they inherited from the Conservatives is too small and unrealistic. Improving public services without increasing spending presents another hurdle. These critical strategic decisions will be addressed in the upcoming budget, which will be pivotal.”
Prof Curtice emphasised that the budget serves as a more meaningful indicator of the government’s performance than the preceding 100 days. He stated, “What really matters is the fallout from the budget, and then the more detailed spending plans that will follow, particularly for 2025-26 and beyond. For now, the government is somewhat on hold.” He added that, despite a relatively inactive summer, the administration has not garnered positive press or strong public enthusiasm. The weaknesses observed in Keir Starmer as an individual, along with Labour’s overall appeal before the election, have only become more pronounced since taking office.
He outlined two main areas of concern. “First, there is no clear narrative. The Labour Party entered power with a slogan of change, but change to what? There hasn’t been a defined message regarding the direction they intend to take the country, beyond a vague promise of increased prosperity. Of course, no government campaigns on making the country less prosperous.
“Second, Keir Starmer was never a particularly popular Opposition leader, and his shortcomings have been further exposed in the context of governance. Although there was a brief surge in Starmer's popularity following the election win, it has not endured; his approval ratings are now lower than they were during much of his time in Opposition. However, this doesn’t necessarily indicate a complete loss of public faith in the government. There is a sense of disappointment, yet many are adopting a "wait and see" attitude."
Minority perspective of the Labour government
A report titled "Minorities Report: The Attitudes of Britain’s Ethnic Minority Population," from the think tank UK In a Changing Europe and research firm Focaldata, reveals that ethnic minority voters in the UK often hold different political and social views compared to the general population. There are also varying opinions among different ethnic and religious groups.
Sophie Stowers, a Research Associate at UK In a Changing Europe, explained why these groups did not support the Labour Party in the recent election. She noted, “Voting patterns change depending on the specific group. For example, British Muslims, especially those of Asian descent, are influenced by the party's position on Gaza.”
In contrast, British Indian and British Chinese voters tend to have different views. Stowers mentioned that while these voters are generally socially liberal, they often hold conservative opinions on economic issues like welfare, taxation, and public spending. This economic conservatism can create a divide between these groups and Labour, which is why many chose to vote Conservative or support other parties, especially in 2019. While this trend may change in the upcoming 2024 election, it is still important to consider.
Stowers added that the next election's dynamics might heavily depend on how much the issue of Gaza remains in public discussion. “If the conflict stays as prominent as it is now, it could greatly affect British Asian voters,” she said.
Another key factor will be how the Conservative Party positions itself after the upcoming leadership election. “Our data shows that white and non-white voters often have similar policy preferences, but they differ significantly on the issue of immigration. If the Conservatives focus heavily on immigration, particularly with a leader like Robert Jenrick, it may slow the shift of some ethnic minority voters towards the Tory party,” Stowers explained.
She emphasised that many of these voters care more about economic issues, welfare, and taxation than immigration. “If the Conservative Party adopts more centrist views on these important topics and emphasises them as part of their Opposition to Labour, we could see more ethnic minority voters shift their support in the next election”, she said.
While Sophie offered an expert view on the Labour Party's current and potential standing within minority communities, Ishwer Tailor, Vice President of the Gujarat Hindu Society in Preston, shared a community perspective.
He stated, “The recent instability of the Conservative government has allowed the Labour Party to gain public trust and secure a majority in the House of Commons. This gives Keir Starmer the opportunity to pursue his agenda. However, there have been setbacks, like the suspension of pension credit and fuel support for pensioners. Additionally, Labour has struggled to address immigration effectively. Right now, Labour doesn’t seem to have a strong international presence, while in comparison, Rishi Sunak was actively featured on the global stage.”
He added, “Currently, the economic situation in the country isn’t great. Starmer is trying to strengthen ties with the EU to improve relations and facilitate trade on various projects, which I see as a positive move. He has a capable cabinet, but they are all relatively new to politics, so it will take time for them to adjust.
“He has already admitted that it’s been a bumpy journey. I believe he knows that to achieve results, he will need to make some bold decisions. He still needs to demonstrate to the broader community that the party has changed and is committed to making significant improvements in how the country is run. I hope they can implement that.”
100 days of Tory Opposition
While there has been a lot of talk about Labour’s 100 days in power, this milestone also stands for the Conservative party which has undergone a significant internal analysing and changes. With internal disagreements and leadership battles, a lot can be said about how things can pan out for the party.
According to Prof Curtice, none of the Conservative leadership candidates, in a general sense or broadly, have achieved two key things. “First, there are not well-established figures, and we don’t know whether they can capture the public’s attention and second, none of the candidates have managed to command clear support from the parliamentary party”, he said.
Highlighting a very interesting point, Prof Curtice said, “With all the infighting within the party, it doesn't seem like they’re putting up a strong front, and I think that has an impact as well. That raises an interesting question—if we have a Labour government that isn’t particularly popular and fails to improve its standing, and an Opposition that might take a while to recover, who stands to benefit? It could be the Greens, Reform, or the Liberal Democrats.
“Current polling suggests that all three parties may find themselves in stronger positions, potentially leading to an even more fractured British political landscape than we already have.”
Sophie also shared her opinion on the Tory leadership candidates sharing, “When we consider the last two candidates who advanced to the leadership election, both are situated on the right of the party. It remains uncertain whether this approach will resonate with a broad range of voters or if it is the best strategy for recovering from their recent electoral defeat.
“Moreover, there's a challenge in trying to "out-Farage Farage," which is a difficult undertaking. Many Reform Party voters do not support the Conservative Party, making them a tough demographic to win back. This raises the question of whether the Conservatives are focusing too much on appealing to a relatively small group of voters at the expense of engaging with a significant portion of the British public. If they continue down this path, they may risk losing broader support in the coming years.”
