Washington: The relationship between US and Pakistan reached a new low after President Trump lashed out at the nation for nurturing terror groups. Islamabad is believed to have devised a “three-option diplomatic policy,” including an extreme case scenario where it will block access for US and Nato supplies to land-locked Afghanistan.
Actions prior to this will include, according to media, limiting diplomatic ties with US and reducing mutual cooperation on terrorism-related issues and non-cooperation in US strategy for Afghanistan. Pakistan has also warned that it would not buy any more F-16 jets from the US, and would lean towards China.
After giving Pakistan a taste of the kind of financial vulnerability it is under by banning operations in the US of Habib Bank, the country's leading financial institution, for regulatory violations, the Trump administration has indicated it has more weapons up its sleeve. Among them: Stripping Pakistan of the status of a non-Nato ally, cutting off all aid, imposing travel ban on suspected ISI personnel in the US operating undercover, and finally, formal designation of Pakistan as a terrorist state.
Withdrawal of non-Nato ally status and designating it a terrorist state would limit weapons sales and probably affect billions of dollars in IMF and World Bank loans, along with access to global finance.
Pakistan supporters in the US have long argued the country was “too big to fail” and applying too much pressure on it would push it into China's arms. But, the US appears to have reckoned that the country is already firmly in the Chinese camp, and Beijing can do little to stave off a financial meltdown if Washington decides to put the squeeze on a country whose elites have greater affinity for London and New York than for Beijing.
Talk of a western visa ban terrifies Pakistani military and political elites such as Musharraf and Nawaz Sharif, who owns prime property and camp out in the west whenever things get too hot at home.
Pakistan bravado in threatening to cut off US access to Afghanistan comes ahead of a possible meeting of its new PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi with vice-president Mike Pence in New York on sidelines of the UN General Assembly. President Trump appears to have little time or patience with a country whose proliferation activities are being recalled again following North Korea's aggravations in the nuclear and ballistic missile sphere.
Even the state department, whose bureaucrats have long advocated a cautious line on Pakistan fearing its collapse and a “loose nukes” scenario, appear to have fallen in line with the White House's get-tough policy stemming from Islamabad's perfidy regarding using terrorism as a policy instrument.
On Pakistani television, some talking heads and anchors are now discussing the imminent collapse of the country's economy if US puts the squeeze. Pakistanis are also stunned that many reports now rank Bangladesh ahead of it in several economic metrics, including exports and foreign exchange reserves. But the country's hardline nationalists and fantasists believe China, and perhaps even Russia, will come to its rescue.
