TRUMP’S HISTORICAL COMEBACK

Subhasini Naicker Thursday 07th November 2024 01:35 EST
 
Donald Trump Credit: Jonah Elkowitz _Shutterstock
 

With millions of Americans casting their votes, the 2024 presidential race is emerging as one for the history books.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is poised to become the second US president in history to serve non-consecutive terms after defeating Kamala Harris.

The United States has a total of 538 electoral votes, with a candidate needing to secure at least 270 to win the presidency.

In addition to his victory, Trump is set to become the oldest person in US history to be elected president. He will also be the first sitting president facing legal indictment and the only one to have undergone impeachment proceedings twice during his tenure.

Republican nominee JD Vance is set to become one of America’s youngest vice presidents, with his wife, Usha Vance, making history as the first Indian-origin Second Lady of the United States.

Shares in Tesla and US banks surged, while European renewable stocks fell, as investors anticipated a significant impact from Donald Trump’s likely election. European banks like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley saw gains of 8-9%, driven by expectations of tax cuts and deregulation under Trump. American Express rose 7%.

Global leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, have congratulated Trump and expressed eagerness to strengthen ties with the US.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also wrote to Trump to celebrate his "historic election victory," adding his hopes for the continued strength of the UK-US special relationship. "As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise. From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come," he said.

One of the closest friends of Trump, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also hailed Trump's victory, adding that he was looking forward to working with the vote frontrunner. "Heartiest congratulations my friend @realDonaldTrump on your historic election victory," Modi wrote, on the social media platform X, adding: "As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration. Together, let's work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity."

Indian-American voters favour Trump for economic opportunities

One might have expected Indian Americans to vote for Kamala Harris due to her Indian heritage, but this may not necessarily be the case. Many young Indian Americans voted for Donald Trump. 

While they make up just 1.5% of the voting population, Indian Americans are a rapidly growing and highly influential voting bloc.

According to the Indian American Attitudes Survey, 60% of Indian-American women under 40 said they would vote for Kamala Harris, while men were evenly split between Trump and Harris. Across all age groups, only 22% of Indian-American women expressed support for Trump, compared to 39% of men. 

While first-generation Indian-American immigrants are more concerned about Trump’s immigration policies, second-generation Indian-Americans, particularly young men, are focused on securing their social and economic status.
While women tend to support Harris, many Indian-origin men feel the Democrats are weak on immigration, too influenced by the extreme left, and overly focused on identity politics. For them, the election is a battle between progressive and conservative values, and they lean towards preserving the latter. They also believe the Trump administration could offer better economic opportunities for their community.

Strong bond between Modi and Trump

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former President Donald Trump share a close friendship, marked by mutual admiration and shared interests. Their relationship strengthened during Trump’s presidency, with notable events like the "Howdy Modi" rally in Texas, where Trump publicly praised Modi's leadership. 

Both leaders emphasise strong nationalistic agendas, economic growth, and security, fostering a partnership that has bolstered US-India relations. While PM Modi backed Trump in the 2020 election, he has not shown strong support for Kamala Harris, whose mother immigrated from a village in Tamil Nadu.

From praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi to condemning violence against Hindus in Bangladesh, Trump has made efforts to connect with the desi community. He even discussed his Texas 'Howdy Modi' rally in a podcast, signalling his support for them. 

In a podcast, Trump praised Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, saying, "Modi is a friend of mine and one of the nicest human beings. Before he became Prime Minister, India was very unstable. On the outside, he has a fatherly presence, but he's also incredibly tough—a total killer."
Market analysts believe that a Trump victory could drive higher spending in the US, potentially keeping inflation elevated. A stronger dollar and increased trade barriers are also likely outcomes. Experts warn that Trump's economic policies may fuel inflation, with plans to impose tariffs on imports, making foreign goods more expensive, and incentivising US-based production, which could raise costs. 

Trump's policies are generally expansionary, focusing on tax cuts for corporations, particularly those manufacturing in the US. He has proposed tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China and 10-20% on goods from other countries.

Additionally, he has discussed mass deportations of illegal immigrants, which could reduce the labour supply, cutting aid to Ukraine, reducing NATO involvement, while continuing support for Israel and Taiwan, and seeking greater influence over the Federal Reserve.

Labour’s past criticism of Trump clouds US-UK ties

Trump’s relationship with the UK is complicated. A potential strain on US-UK relations under his leadership could stem from past remarks made by senior members of Keir Starmer’s team about Trump. Additionally, during the US Presidential election, the Labour Party openly supported the Democrats, which may further complicate diplomatic ties.

In 2018, David Lammy, now the UK’s most senior diplomat, called then-President Trump “a woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath” and “a profound threat to the international order.” More recently, Immigration Minister Angela Eagle accused Trump of fueling "vitriol" against migrants through social media.

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s close relationship with Trump could also complicate matters, as the Reform UK leader may seek to influence and challenge government opponents. 

However, Trump’s personal connection to the UK, partly due to his mother’s Scottish heritage, may offer some balance. His second golf course in Scotland, named in her honour, is set to open next year.
Two key diplomatic successes underscore the UK’s strong ties with Team Trump. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy met the president-elect at Trump Tower in September, with Trump adjusting his schedule to meet them. Shortly after surviving an assassination attempt, Trump also held an early call with Starmer—both achievements credited to a skilled diplomatic push led by Ambassador Dame Karen Pierce at the British Embassy.

Stand Up to Racism held an emergency "No to Trump" protest at the US embassy in London following his election victory. In their statement, they condemned his campaign for promoting racism, bigotry, misogyny, and Islamophobia, warning that his presidency could fuel the global rise of the far right.

Following the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election, London Mayor Sadiq Khan expressed concern, stating, “I know many Londoners will feel anxious about the implications of this election—whether for democracy, women’s rights, the Middle East, Ukraine, NATO’s future, or the fight against climate change. London is - and will always be - for everyone. We will always be pro-women, pro-diversity, pro-climate and pro-human rights.

"London is a place where we’re proud of our diversity, proud of the contribution of all our communities and proud of our spirit of unity…” he added.

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Usha Vance set to become US second lady

With Donald Trump securing the US presidential election, his running mate JD Vance will assume the role of vice president, while Vance's wife, Usha Chilukuri Vance, is poised to make history as the first Indian-origin Second Lady of the United States. A Yale graduate and corporate litigator based in San Francisco, Usha's roots trace back to Andhra Pradesh, India, through her immigrant parents who arrived in America in 1986. Born in San Diego and raised in an upper-middle-class suburb, Usha's impressive academic and professional background underscores her success. She and Ohio Senator JD Vance, whom she met at Yale Law School, got married in 2014 and now have three children.


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