Kabul: In a dramatic development with strategic, political and security repercussions for India, the United States and the Taliban said that they will seal a political settlement on February 29 at the end of a week-long period of “violence reduction” in Afghanistan. The deal could become one of the major talking points during the bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the agreement, which will reduce US presence in the region, will be signed upon the successful implementation of an understanding with the Taliban on a “significant” and nationwide reduction in violence. A Taliban spokesperson was quoted as saying that “both parties agreed to sign the finalised accord in the presence of international observers”. Both sides would also make arrangements for the release of prisoners, the Taliban said. Afghan, international and Taliban forces will observe the reduced violence period.
There has been no official word from New Delhi yet, but the deal is of some concern to the Indian establishment. More so, because the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan carries harsh memories from the 1990s, especially of the IC-814 hijack crisis that ended with the release of Masood Azhar. Azhar later founded the Jaish-e-Mohammed, a terror outfit that has claimed several Indian lives — from the Parliament attack in 2001 to the Pulwama attack in 2019.
Over the last two years, New Delhi had kept a close watch on meetings between the US and Taliban negotiators. It has been briefed by the US interlocutors, especially US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad who has travelled to India several times and recently met External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar recently at the Munich Security Conference.
Apart from the US, India has engaged in regular talks with other active players, like Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and the political forces in Afghanistan, on this issue. While many Western observers believe the agreement could represent a chance for peace in the region, New Delhi has been cautious on the issue as it gives strength to Pakistan, which has been a long-time benefactor of the Taliban.
Though New Delhi has softened its position over the years on engaging with the Taliban, India has always maintained that it has three “red lines”, which it spelt out last year when the US, Russia and China were conducting negotiations with the Taliban. The first is that “all initiatives and processes must include all sections of the Afghan society, including the legitimately elected government”. This is important as, in the past, the Afghan government was often sidelined by international interlocutors engaging with the Taliban. This also means that there is acceptability in Delhi about talking to the Taliban - since they represent a “section of the Afghan society”.
The second red line is that “any process should respect the constitutional legacy and political mandate”. This means that the achievement of establishing democratic processes and human rights, including women’s rights, should be respected. Delhi will again monitor whether the “new Taliban” - as Western interlocutors claim - will respect these markers from the last two decades.
The third is that any process “should not lead to any ungoverned spaces where terrorist and their proxies can relocate”. This is crucial for India, as it points to threats from terrorist groups, including the Haqqani network, Al Qaeda, Islamic State - and also, Pakistan-based outfits like the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jamaat-ud-Dawa and Jaish-e-Mohammed that could relocate.
India has always pushed for a peace and reconciliation process that is Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled - and, in a nutshell, counter the Pakistan military establishment’s influence over Kabul.
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