Geneva: The coronavirus pandemic could kill up to 190,000 people in Africa over the next 12 months and “smoulder” in ‘“transmission hotspots” for years, the World Health Organization has warned. A WHO modelling study found that anywhere between 29 to 44 million people could be infected and between 83,000 and 190,000 Africans could die of Covid-19 if it is not controlled.
The spread of coronavirus in Africa will probably be slower because of the continent’s youthful population and environmental factors, WHO says. The model predicts a slower rate of transmission, lower age of people with severe disease and lower mortality rates compared to what is seen in the most affected countries in the rest of the world.
"The lower rate of transmission, however, suggests a more prolonged outbreak over a few years," WHO said in a statement. "While Covid-19 likely won't spread as exponentially in Africa as it has elsewhere in the world, it likely will smoulder in transmission hotspots,” said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, the head of the WHO in Africa.
Experts have warned that the continent of 1.3 billion people is uniquely vulnerable to the pandemic. High rates of malnutrition and poverty, underfunded healthcare systems, high numbers of HIV infections and fragile food supplies mean Africa could soon face disaster.
The vast majority of African leaders were quick to recognise the threat posed by Covid-19, closing their borders and cutting off international air travel when there was only a handful of cases in their countries. This slowed the spread of the virus but now recorded coronavirus cases are beginning to climb steadily in almost every African country.
According to statistics released by the WHO, there have been almost 63,293 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 2,290 deaths in Africa. However, because of low testing numbers, these figures almost certainly represent a fraction of the total number of cases. Africa’s limited medical services would quickly be overwhelmed if the virus started to spread in the same way it has in Europe and the US.
There is an average of less than one intensive care bed and one life-saving ventilator per 100,000 people in Africa, a recent analysis found.
Dr Moeti warned African leaders that "Covid-19 could become a fixture in our lives for the next several years unless a proactive approach is taken by many governments in the region". She added: "We need to test, trace, isolate and treat.”
