Practicing restraint in a "fragile political and security environment" is key to maintaining India-Pakistan relationship, a policy expert has said.
Speaking at an event at the Arundel House on Wednesday, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, a South Asia policy researcher said India's top domestic priorities are the five upcoming state assembly elections and a general election next year.
Three of the five poll-bound states are ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which is also in power at the central government.
Mr Roy-Chaudhury, a senior researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: "The BJP government at the centre is going into these elections in a stronger position.
"A decisive factor towards the final result will be if the regional parties in Uttar Pradesh, especially the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, are able to form a pre-poll or post-poll coalition with the opposition [Indian National] Congress Party.
"For the next few months the BJP government at centre will focus largely, I believe, on winning Uttar Pradesh for the general election."
Indo-Pakistan relationship
Mr Roy-Chaudhury said a fresh outreach from India to Pakistan was unlikely during the election period.
He referred to the "fiasco" between Indian and Pakistani foreign ministers at the U.N. General Assembly last month as a recent example of strained relationship between the two nations.
India's Sushma Swaraj had accused Pakistan of harbouring terrorists and rejected the notion that India was sabotaging peace talks with its neighbour. Pakistan had later said India preferred "politics over peace."
The two foreign ministers were supposed to meet on the sidelines of the assembly but India cancelled the meet following the killing of an Indian border guard in the disputed Kashmir region.
Mr Roy-Chaudhury added: "Indian government has provided a harsh assessment of Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan’s government amidst continuing attacks against Indian security forces in Kashmir.
"India’s forthcoming state elections, especially in Rajasthan, which borders Pakistan, and the general election matter in this regard.
"One can expect the Indian rhetoric over terrorism to increase during the November-December period this year as well as in April-May next year.
"Implicitly and at times explicitly this rhetoric will be focused on Pakistan, its militant groups, the army and the government."
He also said if there were to be a major terror attack in India during this period, even the opposition Congress Party could criticise the government for not taking a tough stance against Pakistan.
In case of such an event, the rhetoric emanating from India would not be easy to ignore by Pakistan, which has its own rhetoric over India's human rights violations in Kashmir.
The UN has said in a report this year that India's use of "excessive force" since 2016 in Jammu and Kashmir has "led to casualties and a wide range of alleged related human rights violations."
The report by the UN human rights office also urged Pakistan to end "misuse" of anti-terror legislation to quash dissent and called for an international inquiry into the alleged violations in the disputed region.
Mr Roy-Chaudhury added: "Within such a fragile political and security environment, easily exacerbated and exploited by a Pakistan-based terror attack on India, the key will be for both the Indian and Pakistani government to effectively manage their relationship through restraint.
"With no expectation of a resumption of an official bilateral dialogue, while ensuring the prevention of any escalation towards a confrontation, the next Indian government will then decide policy towards Pakistan for the next five years."
