A lot has changed in the past few weeks, in India and Pakistan, thanks to an unprecedented catastrophe in Kashmir region in Jammu & Kashmir. India lost 40 policemen in a single terror strike, in the Valley. What implicated Pakistan was the responsibility immediately claimed by Jaish-e-Mohammad, a Pakistan based Jihadi terror group. A pre-recorded video of the suicide bomber, Adil Ahmad Dar, released soon after lent credibility to that claim. The initial shock and grief in India gave way to bristling anger towards Pakistan, asking for retribution.
What made matters worse for Pakistan was absolutely no attempt to deny involvement, or offer even a perfunctory commiseration. Instead, Prime Minister Imran Khan video-recorded a message that included a threat to retaliate leading to escalation, should India respond with an offensive action. His gratuitous advice to talk peace may have made him look somewhat limp in the opinion of GHQ at Rawalpindi. So, they pulled out their favourite rabble-rouser, Sheikh Rasheed (the minister for Railways), to record another clip addressed to India. He openly brandished the nuclear threat, leaving absolutely nothing to imagination, when he said “the grass won’t grow, the birds won’t chirp and the temple bells will fall silent”.
When India lost 19 soldiers at Uri in September 2016, the outraged nation was assuaged with a ‘surgical strike’ within 11 days. This was the first time India formally informed Pakistan, and the world, that the Line-of-Control (LoC) was crossed by its ‘Special Forces’ to target the infiltration launch-pads of the Jihadis. Pakistan refuted India’s claim. It was unprecedented. Generally, Pakistan and India would, periodically, accuse each other of violating the LoC, only to be denied by the accused. By going public on the Surgical Strikes, India had redefined its limits for punitive retaliations against Pakistan. Pakistan did try to create a doubt by dubbing those strikes as India’s baseless bravado to address its domestic audience. That didn’t stop India from celebrating those strikes. Not only the soldiers involved of the Special Forces were conferred gallantry awards, an immensely popular film, Uri, was beginning to add to the halo of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, about to seek a renewal of his mandate.
Six weeks after the strike and the events thereafter, suggest that the Pulwama strike was an attempted intervention in the Indian general elections planned for April-May. It was an attempt to dent the daredevil image of Narendra Modi and try to undermine the swelling pride of the nation high on “josh”. Those who planned it in Pakistan may have gambled on a war-averse Modi, unwilling to risk a potential disaster while trying to avenge an attack too close to the crucial general election. After all, Pulwama-attack was deep within the territory and carried out by a local boy. Chances are that Pakistan may have expected another ‘surgical strike’ kind of response and laid an appropriate ambush to further compound the disaster for India and, thus, cook Modi’s goose in the elections. None of that worked out. What did happen, unambiguously, is that Modi has turned the tables. He has been handed a huge advantage on a platter.
The February air-strikes caught Pakistan napping, literally. India did not even have to claim. Pakistan was quick to confirm, at dawn, the pre-dawn strikes. That it was a dozen odd planes that went deep inside Pakistan, or several targets were engaged and huge casualties inflicted with meticulous precision, are mere details. The big picture is that the world has to reassess a brand new India, both for its intent and ability.
It is in this light that one must see the Pakistani response. Sending 24 planes in retaliation, barely hovering about the LoC and scooting back, was a ritual face-saving. Returning the captured Indian pilot without India even formally asking for his return, looked like begging for de-escalation. Shutting down the entire Pakistani air-space, for almost a month, meant that they were unsure if India would oblige.
Even the Indian vocabulary has undergone a huge change.
After the Indian Air Force struck, the press communiqué of the Foreign Secretary, Government of India, mentioned that “…such training facilities capable of training hundreds of Jihadis…” and that “India has been repeatedly urging Pakistan to take action against the JeM, to prevent Jihadis from being trained and armed…” This was, arguably, the first time India formally acknowledged the challenge it faced as not just terror but Jihadi terror. Indian establishment, owing to its secular predilections perhaps, was always squeamish about using expressions that even remotely implicated an identity.
Then, while recently banning the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front and arresting Yasin Malik, the Home Secretary, in an official statement declared “Malik was the mastermind behind the purging of Kashmiri Pandits and is responsible for their genocide.” Acknowledgement of the Hindu genocide in Kashmir, even though after three decades, came as a pleasant surprise to the activists who would resent being called displaced or migrants.
How much of this change is expedient due to elections and how much will impact the future decisions only the time will tell.
Sushil Pandit is a 56 years old Media man, a Kashmiri Hindu in exile who lives in New Delhi. He teaches Strategic Media Planning at the Indian Institute of Mass Communication as an adjunct faculty and is the Co-Founder of Roots-in-Kashmir (RIK). He is a passionate campaigner of the rights of minorities, particularly fights for justice to the victims and survivors of the Hindu Genocide in Kashmir. He is often sought out by the news channels on the issues related to Kashmir, South Asian Geopolitics and South Asia Security issues.
