Pollsters are unanimous that BJP and its allies are headed for a convincing victory, its maiden one, in Assam, with only one saying that the tally of NDA - which includes AGP and BPF - might fall short of the majority mark. Should the actual result follow the same trajectory, it will give a big boost to BJP. Besides the satisfaction of wresting yet another state from Congress, a win in Assam will help the party's effort to regain the political momentum it lost because of humiliations in Delhi and Bihar, and will put it in the right shape for the battles ahead, including that for the biggest electoral prize, UP.
More importantly, a saffron regime in Assam where Muslims account for one-third of the electorate will represent a success for the strategy of getting around the barrier of Muslim resistance by consolidating Hindu votes, something which will be of crucial importance for BJP. It will also be a boost for Amit Shah who overcame the shocks inflicted by Bihar and Delhi and supervised the game plan for Assam, scripting crucial moves like induction of Congress rebel Himanta Biswa Sarma and alliances with AGP and BPF.
Coming when the government is nearing the midway point, it should also reassure the Modi regime which was already feeling encouraged by predictions of a normal monsoon and the growing estimate that efforts to repair the economy might have begun to become evident. Of course, the Modi-Shah duopoly, which had no challengers anyway, will get further strengthened.
While BJP, which as a bonus might at last open its account in Kerala, has reasons to rejoice, the results should deepen the growing worry in Congress about the party's future. Pollsters expect it to lose Kerala and Assam, while its much-vaunted alliance with Left in Bengal may fail to match the hype it generated. True, according to majority opinion among psepholigists, it could, along with DMK, pull off an upset win over the fancied J Jayalalitha in TN.
However, a surprise victory in Chennai may not soothe the party's anxious nerves. It is a junior partner of the “scam-tainted” DMK. While the stink of corruption around the Karunanidhi clan may appear to have been neutralised by Jayalalithaa's incumbency handicap, the alliance can create embarrassing moments for the party. The 2G cases involving DMK's first family are in advanced stages of trial and the possibility of Congress, already reeling under the AgustaWestland graft allegations, facing awkward moments cannot be ruled out.
Questions about Rahul Gandhi's leadership are sure to grow and so will the pressure on him to formally take over the party's reins.
Unlike Jayalalithaa, Mamata's standing seems to be made of sterner stuff, and has helped her easily overwhelm the united challenge from Left and Congress. Her victory dwarfs the achievement Nitish Kumar clocked earlier this year, considering that she, unlike the Bihar CM, played solo. Besides the embarrassment of failing despite having supped with the Left, its hostility towards Mamata will mean Congress will have to do without her numbers in Parliament.
Mamata, along with Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik and Jayalalithaa, will form the club which wants to be equidistant from both BJP and Congress.
The defeat in Bengal is a cause of concern for the Left too. It is expected to win in Kerala but that has more to do with the revolving-door pattern of politics in the state where it swaps assembly benches with Congress every fifth year.
