The India Meteorological Department has predicted normal and fairly well-distributed monsoon rains for most parts of the country in June-September even as it revised downward the new “rainfall normal” for the four-month season from 88 cm to 87 cm.
IMD said monsoon rainfall over the country is likely to be 99% of the new normal. If the forecast holds true, it’ll be the fourth consecutive year of “normal” to “above normal” southwest (summer) monsoon rains in India. There is a 60% forecast probability of good rainfall, signalling a relief to rain-fed areas which substantially contribute to the production of foodgrain.
However, northeast India, some parts of northwest and southern parts of the south peninsula may receive “below normal” rainfall, IMD said.
But it’ll not affect agricultural operations as the entire rain-fed areas of the country and the monsoon core zone is likely to get normal to above rainfall during June-September. Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 99% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of +/5%,” said IMD chief M Mohapatra while releasing the first long range monsoon forecast for 2022.
The Met department has, for the first time, used an LPA of 87 cm as the new normal for seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole, based on 1971-2020 data, showing a decline in average annual rainfall in India over the long period.
