The ruling BJP has for the first time touched the 100-mark in the Rajya Sabha and become the first party to reach the milestone after 1988, but its new position may be a shortlived one as four of its MPs who entered the Upper House as nominated members will retire in the next three weeks, bringing its tally back to 96.
One more nominated MP will retire on May 3, which will effectively further reduce its numerical strength. At present, nine of the 12 nominated members are part of the BJP, taking its tally to 100 now.
The retirement list of members shows that the President will have to nominate seven members in the next three to four weeks. The seven nominated members who are going to retire include Subramanian Swamy, Mary Kom, Swapan Dasgupta, Roopa Ganguly, Suresh Gopi and Narendra Jadhav in April, and Sambhaji Chhatrapati in May.
Except Jadhav and Kom, all five had taken the BJP’s membership in the Upper House, accepting the whip of the party. Under existing rules, 12 members are nominated by the President from among persons having special knowledge or practical experience in literature, science, art and social service for six years. Though nominated members invariably vote for the government, nine in the current House preferred to be counted as part of the ruling BJP giving the party numerical strength.
Elections for 53 more seats are expected to be held in June-July to fill the new vacancies as 20 MPs will retire in June and 33 others in July. Since 11 of these seats will be vacant from Uttar Pradesh, the BJP would be able to retain its strength, backed by its recent win in the state. The jump in the BJP’s tally in the Upper House is not expected before early 2024 when as many as 54 seats will go for biennial elections. It will, however, depend on how the ruling party will perform in five assembly elections - Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh later this year, and Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in late next year. If the BJP gains majority on its own in the Upper House by April, 2024, it will be for the first time since 1982 when the same party had majority on its own in both the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha.
