India witnessed the second phase of voting for 88 Lok Sabha constituencies across 12 states and the Union Territory of J&K on April 26, marked by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his opponents exchanging allegations of religious bias and challenges to democracy amid a decline in voter participation.
Almost 1 billion people are eligible to vote in the seven-phase general election that began on April 19 and will conclude on June 1, with votes set to be counted on June 4. Modi is seeking a record-equalling third straight term on the back of his economic record, welfare measures, national pride, Hindu nationalism, and personal popularity. Surveys suggest he will easily win a comfortable majority.
His challengers have formed an alliance of more than two dozen parties and are promising greater affirmative action, more handouts, and an end to what they call Modi’s autocratic rule. A total of 88 seats out of the 543 in the lower house of parliament went to the polls, with 160 million people eligible to vote across 12 states and the Union Territory of J&K.
In the second phase, over 158.8 million voters, including 80.8 million males, 78 million females, and 5,929 third gender were eligible to vote. Approximate voter turnout data at the end of polling put second phase turnout at 66, lower than the 68% recorded in the second phase five years ago.
Concerns about lower turnout have been raised due to unseasonably hot weather and weddings in certain regions. Special arrangements, including shelters, drinking water, medical aid, and fans, were made to ensure voter comfort. Analysts attribute the lower turnout to a lack of a single dominant issue and potential complacency among the BJP's committed Hindu nationalist base.
The third phase of polling for 94 seats in 12 states and union territories will be held on May 7.
Analysis of low voter turnout
A comparative assessment of polling in the second phase shows that high turnout (more than 70%) in the East and the North East (Assam, Manipur, Tripura, and West Bengal) and low turnout (less than 60%) in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have followed earlier trends. Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan also experienced relatively lower turnout, although a detailed analysis of the reasons must await comprehensive post-poll surveys.
However, it is evident that voter turnout has decreased compared to 2019, even in the first phase. This has prompted the Election Commission of India to investigate whether heat-wave conditions in many states contributed to this decline. While this could be a factor, it is also possible that voters are less enthusiastic about their choices this time around, as opposed to 2019.
In urban cities like Bengaluru or Chennai, the voting was conducted on Friday, which created a long weekend, prompting people to plan getaways rather than prioritising their civic duty. Several companies in Bengaluru aimed to boost voter turnout in the general election by offering various incentives, such as free food, taxi rides, and health check-ups. Despite initiatives like free beer and discounted cab rides, the turnout remained low, highlighting the persistent challenge of voter engagement in the city. Moreover, Bengaluru’s urban lifestyle and significant migrant population added to the voter apathy, with some residents feeling disconnected from local politics.
Another important factor in this trend is the changing attitudes of the electorate. There's a clear lack of interest among first-time voters, who play a crucial role in revitalising the democratic process.
Considering the fact that the BJP won a comfortable majority and its highest vote share in 2019 coincided with the higher voter turnout, a lower turnout could be a sign of worry for it, even if, conventionally, a higher turnout has generally been a message about anti-incumbency in earlier polls before the BJP became the pole of the Indian party system.
All eyes on the southern states
India's most economically prosperous region comprises the five southern states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Telangana, along with the union territories of Puducherry and Lakshadweep. This region contributes over 30 per cent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Despite Prime Minister Modi's claims of economic progress under his government, the ruling party failed to win over voters in the southern states. More than half the seats in the second phase contests were in the southern states of Kerala and Karnataka and the north-western state of Rajasthan.
Kerala is the only major Indian state where Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has never won a parliamentary seat, though it has seen a steady rise in its voter support from 1.75 per cent in 1984 to 13 per cent in 2019. In February, Modi said the state gave a “two-digit vote share to the BJP” in 2019. “This time, the party would win double-digit seats from Kerala,” he told an election rally.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is running in Wayanad constituency of Kerala for the second time after being defeated in the 2019 elections by Smriti Irani, a BJP leader, in the northern Indian city of Amethi, a traditional stronghold for the Nehru-Gandhi family.
In Kerala, traditionally held by the United Democratic Front (UDF), the BJP-led NDA aims to make its mark, with turnout levels suggesting a story of potential missed opportunities or unforeseen changes, depending on voter mobilisation efforts.
Moving to Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, turnout patterns hint at varying sentiments. While exact figures for 2024 are unclear, lower engagement levels suggest dissatisfaction or changing loyalties. In Tamil Nadu, where the BJP aligns with regional parties, reduced turnout may reflect discontent with national or local politics. Karnataka, where the BJP is strong, faces a pivotal moment where voter participation could influence the outcome in closely contested areas.
Media reports citing state-wise analysis from the ECI reveal that over 118,000 overseas Indians registered to vote in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Notably, 74.9 per cent of Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) hail from Kerala, while 6.4 per cent are from Andhra Pradesh, 4.7 per cent from Maharashtra, and 2.9 per cent each from Tamil Nadu and Telangana.
