Professor Harsh Pant serves as the Vice President of Studies and Foreign Policy at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. He is also a Professor of International Relations at King's India Institute, King's College London, and holds the honorary position of Director at the Delhi School of Transnational Affairs, Delhi University. His current research centres on Asian security issues.
In an interview with Asian Voice, Professor Pant shares his insights on India-US relations, particularly in light of the recent meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump.
What do you think about the meeting between Modi and Trump?
This meeting was essential because, from India's perspective, its partnership with America is crucial for its foreign policy aspirations. With a president like Donald Trump, who is often volatile and unpredictable, it's important to introduce a degree of stability and predictability into that relationship. The best way to achieve this with Mr Trump is through direct communication. I believe that’s why the Indian government’s decision to have this conversation so early in his term was a good move. It has allowed India to frame the relationship for the next four years, set the agenda, and address problematic issues right at the start, rather than letting them build up over time.
While critics may argue that the visit lacked concrete outcomes, I don’t think that was the goal. At this early stage in his presidency, the focus isn’t on deliverables. The key achievement here is introducing predictability and a framework to the relationship. In that sense, India has likely achieved a significant outcome, making the visit an important one.
The two leaders discussed topics like the US-India trade deal and reciprocal tax schemes. From an economic perspective, do you think India can expect to benefit from the US?
Trump isn’t going to give anything to India simply because he likes Modi. What this meeting has done is reframe the conversation about the economy and trade. The trade issue isn’t just about tariffs; it’s about a broader set of issues. And what’s interesting is that, on one hand, Trump talked about reciprocal tariffs, while on the other, India and the US set a target of $500 billion in trade by 2030. To reach such an ambitious target, both sides will have to make concessions. You can’t raise tariffs on India and still expect to reach $500 billion in trade by 2030.
India has smartly expanded the scope of the conversation, emphasising that the economic relationship is bigger and broader than just tariffs. Of course, there are areas of disagreement, but the focus is now on achieving an ambitious outcome. Moreover, issues like defence and energy also play a key role. India is willing to purchase oil and gas from the US, which can help frame the discussion differently, making Trump see the conversation in a new light.
By looking at the entire relationship, rather than just focusing on individual issues, India showcases its importance as the world’s largest arms buyer. This broader engagement, as Trump noted in his phone call, moves beyond just tariffs. The message seems to be that tariffs aren’t the only factor in this relationship.
Do you think China should be concerned about the India-US partnership?
China has always been concerned when India and the US engage, and that concern will continue and it is the responsibility of Indian foreign policy to manage this dynamic. The Chinese are also taking steps to engage with Trump—they are very quick and strategic in doing so. In China, Xi Jinping can make decisions without facing opposition, so their approach to Trump will be direct. They will address issues that matter to him. However, the fundamental contradiction between China and both India and the US, particularly in terms of technology competition, won't disappear. Trump sees the relationship through a geopolitical lens, and he won't back down on this, as it was a key part of his foreign policy legacy in his first term. While business interests from people like Musk may encourage some rapprochement, it's unclear if this will be short-term or long-term. Ultimately, no fundamental shift will occur in the US-China relationship. While occasional photo ops or meetings may happen, the deep differences between them make it difficult to make it seem like "business as usual," unlike with India, where differences can be worked around to create a broader framework for cooperation.
Will the next four years see the world walking on eggshells, uncertain of where Trump might turn next? Will the global situation be more tumultuous as a result?
The level of disruption Trump is trying to bring is significant. Even in the first few months, we've already seen the impact of his actions. For instance, look at how Europe is scrambling to respond after he offended the entire relationship with them. This unpredictability and disruption are what Trump perceives as his strength. He believes that America has been shortchanged and that the country needs to reset its position in the global arena.
This approach will undoubtedly keep the world on edge, as countries will need to be constantly on their toes. We can expect a tumultuous global environment. Even in more stable times, the world has been unpredictable, but with Trump at the helm, things are likely to be even more chaotic. Countries, including India, will need diplomatic agility to navigate this. It won't be enough to take a bureaucratic approach; nations will have to respond quickly and adapt to each new situation.
You may recall how, during his first term, his tweets would spark daily reactions, and people would have to quickly figure out how to respond. This time, he's started off with executive orders, so we’ll have to wait and see how things unfold. For diplomats, the key will be agility and nimbleness in responding to the changes. India, I think, has done well by being proactive and reaching out to the US early on.
