Gujarat’s tribal belt stretches across 14 districts, from Ambaji in the north to Umbergaon in the south. Though Adivasis constitute 14 per cent of the electorate, in the past they have been one of the biggest contributors to the Congress’s tally in the Assembly. The party found electoral success in the 1980s with its KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, and Muslim communities) social alliance strategy.
This belt had traditionally remained a Congress preserve, until the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finally started making inroads in the year 1990s. BJP has been ruling the state for more than two decades after winning six Assembly elections in a row, feels that in the coming elections; it can win at least 20 out of these 27 seats as the tribal population wants development and also given Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity.
A senior Congress leader said the absence of the Gandhis from the campaign would hamper the party’s chances. “The tribal population does look up to the Gandhi family even today,” said a Congress functionary. “So far, we have not heard if Rahul Gandhi or Priyankaji will arrive to campaign in tribal areas. Last time, Rahul Gandhi’s yatra through the tribal seats and his interaction with students had worked in the party’s favour. Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal has cashed in on Rahul Gandhi’s absence.”
After forming a pre-election agreement with the BTP earlier this year, the AAP got off to a solid start in its campaign for the Adivasi seats. However, the collaboration failed after Kejriwal's party announced its own slate of candidates and expelled some of the BTP's top officials. Former BTP leader Chaitar Vasava has been nominated by the AAP, forcing incumbent BTP MLA Mahesh Vasava to switch to his father Chhotubhai Vasava's Jhagadia constituency.
BJP’S strategies
In 2020, the BJP orchestrated a wave of tribal leaders leaving the Congress. This included the two current MLAs from the southern Dangs and Kaprada seats.
This year, they have sparked a brand-new wave of tribal defections from the Congress. These include the current representatives for the Congress-held Khedbrahma, Jhalod, and Chhota Udepur constituencies. The most valuable candidate is Mohansinh Rathwa, 11-time Chhota Udepur Congress MLA.
Lastly, the BJP’s heavyweights are campaigning strongly in the tribal belt. The Prime Minister has been setting the stage for some months now, with repeated visits to the region, inaugurating development projects, and showcasing the patent economic boom a round the Sardar Patel Statue of Unity.
Representation in Political Parties
Of the 182 candidates who will contest from BJP, 59 belong to Other Backward Classes (OBCs). These candidates belong to the Koli, Ahir, Thakor, Karadiya, Chaudhary, Vagher, Mer, Kharava, Ranagola, Madi, Panchal, Barot, Modi, Mistri, Rabari and Satvara communities. The party has given 28 Scheduled Tribe and 15 Scheduled Caste candidates tickets in this election. Meanwhile, only 18 women candidates have been fielded by the BJP.
Congress party have given tickets to 13 Scheduled Caste and 25 Scheduled Tribe candidates in the election. They have fielded 14 women although that figure was 10 in the last assembly. Forty eight candidates belong to OBCs.
Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) fielded its candidates on all 182 – from which 13 are Scheduled Caste and 26 from Scheduled Tribe and only six women candidates were given tickets
2016 Assembly Election Results
According to preliminary data, the Congress gained about one percentage point more rural seats than the BJP. The BJP won or led in 54 rural assembly segments, while the Congress was firmly saddled in 67. Opposite trends held in urban seats as the Congress managed to win or was winning in only 10 urban seats, compared to the BJP’s 46.
The Congress’ largest gains came from the countryside, particularly Saurashtra, a predominantly rural belt comprising 11 districts and a third of the state’s area. In this region, the Congress won or was leading in 32 seats, compared to 27 of the BJP. This translates to a loss of 15 seats for the BJP and a gain of 13 for the Congress.
