The exit polls conducted on May 16, in five different states across the country has good and bad news for different stakeholders. The exit polls predicted a surprising victory for the Bharatiya Janta Party in Congress-ruled Assam and a sure-shot downfall for Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa. While Mamata Banerjee will retain her seat in West Bengal in all possibilities, Kerala just might see the Left Front shine.
TAMIL NADU
With a recorded turnout of 73.76 per cent as against 78.12 in the last elections, two exit polls predicted defeat for the ruling AIADMK in Tamil Nadu but a third said Jaya was set to retain power. India Today-Axis My India exit poll has predicted 124-140 seats to the DMK-Congress alliance, 89-101 to the AIADMK, 0-3 to the BJP and 4-8 to others. News Nation TV exit poll gave 95-99 seats in the 234-member Assembly to Amma's AIADMK and 114-118 to the DMK-Congress alliance. The People Welfare Front alliance made up of six parties was set for 14 seats and the Bharatiya Janta Party, four. Nine seats could go to others. However, the Cvoter exit poll, said the AIADMK would claim 139 seats, leaving the DMK-Congress with 78 and the BJP most unlikely to win any seat in Tamil Nadu. Polling on two seats was postponed by the Election Commission.
Average poll for all the exit polls show AIADMK winning just 103 of the all the seats, while DMK staked at 120. The BJP failed to make its presence in the state.
Overnight rains and the signs of more did interrupt voting hours in southern districts. Political parties including DMK and AIADMK sought the extension of polling hours but it was rejected by election officials who cited rains had subsided during the day. Palacode and Pennagaram constituencies in Dharmapuri district recorded the highest turnout with a 88.5 and 87.6 per cent respectively. Harbour and Villivakkam constituencies in Chennai recorded the lowest with 53 and 54 per cent respectively.
KERALA
The Left has made quite the impression in Mallu-land. The Assembly elections was a considerably drab affair with just a 71.7 per cent voter turn out in comparison to 2011's 75.12 per cent. Stakes seem to be high for Chief Minister Oommen Chandy and the man realises it. India Today-Axis exit poll gave the Left Democratic Front 88 to 101 seats in the 140-member Assembly, and 38-48 to Congress-led United Democratic Front. It said the BJP could get 0-3 seats while 1-4 may go to others. India TV-C Voter predicted 74-82 seats to the LDF.
An average of the exit polls show 79 seats for the Left, 57 for the UDF, and the BJP sour at just 3. The retreating fan following of the Congress seem to be the result of the surge of crime incidents including the recent rape and murder of a 27 year old Dalit woman in Ernakulam. Chandy, as he awaits the final results on the 19th, said, “UDF is looking at a comfortable win. If we get a second mandate for our government, the credit for that will go to the unity within the UDF. At the same time, if the UDF falters, as the chairman of the coalition front, I will be answerable.”
WEST BENGAL
Exit polls are in favour of 'Didi' Mamata Banerjee, with results predicting an explosive return of the All India Trinamool Congress. India Today-Axis My India exit poll has claimed TMC will retain power in the region with a bigger majority than it had got in 2011. While the TMC is expected to win a massive 233-253 of the 294 seater Assembly, opposition alliance of the Congress and the Left is likely to reduce to 38-51 seats. ABP Ananda predicted Trinamool is all set to gain 178 seats while the Left-Congress would stand at 110. The BJP would get one seat while others would bag 5 seats. Cvoter has put its stakes in 167 seats for Mamata, 75 for the Left, 45 for the Congress, 4 for the BJP and 3 for others.
Average seat sharing for TMC is 184 and for the Left-Congress alliance is 103.
ASSAM
It is seemingly 'achche din' for the BJP as it will dethrone Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi's government of 15 years, and get its maiden government in Assam if exit polls are to be believed. My India polls gave the saffron alliance 79-93 seats in the House of 126. Ruling Congress is estimated to get 26-33 while AIUDF is set to get 6-10 seats. Others can get to 1-4 seats. ABP Ananda poll gave the BJP alliance 81 seats, Congress 33, AIUDF 10 and others, 2. Times Now C Voter has given the BJP 57 seats, Congress 33, AIUDF 18 and others 10. All five exit polls have predicted a sure shot victory for the BJP in Assam, grabbing more than 53 seats.
An average of all the polls shows 73 seats for the BJP, 37 for the Congress, and 12 for the Assam United Democratic Front. BJP's CM candidate Sarbananda Sonowal said there was no question of joining hands with the AIUDF. “We alone will get absolute majority and with our partners, we will get two-thirds seats.” However, Tarun Gogoi remained confident of his victory. Addressing the media, he said, “I don't see why there will be anti-incumbency. I trust the people of Assam, they know how much development has happened under us.”
PUDUCHERRY
Union Territory Puducherry recorded a super voter turnout with 81.9 per cent. With Congress-DMK and the ruling All India NR Congress locking horns for the 30 member House, popularity stays with the DMK headed party. India TV CVoter polls has predicted a slightly lower margin with DMK estimated to win around 10-18 seats. AINRC is projected to win 5-13 seats, AIADMK 1-9 seats, BJP 0-2 seats and others, 0-4 seats.
India Today-Axis predicted DMK-led alliance set to win 15-21 seats, AINRC to get 8-12 seats, the AIADMK 1-4 seats and others, 2 seats. An average of 16 seats has been recorded for the Congress-DMK alliance, 10 seats for AINRC and AIADMK, just 3.
