The 2019 edition of the UK Competitiveness Index, a report compiled by researchers at Cardiff University and Nottingham Business School announce significant parts of Britain will experience a decline in competitive growth over the next 20 years. Focusing on local authority areas, the analysis offers the most detailed insights to date of the UK's economic prospects. It finds that the competitiveness divide between London and other parts of the UK will become even wider over the next two decades.
Merthyr Tydfil in South Wales is set to experience the biggest economic decline, with the town's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita predicted to decrease by 0.56 per cent. Tower Hamlets in London is predicted to be the fastest growing area, with its GDPP per capita forecast to rise by 7.17 per cent every year. This is followed by Camden (6.97 per cent) and Islington (6.52). Professor Robert Huggins, based at Cardiff University's School of Geography and Planning, said, “This research presents the most extensive picture of the UK's future economic challenges. It's clear that whatever happens over the coming weeks, the competitiveness gap between London and other parts of the UK is going to soar. These are issues that will only be exacerbated by a no-deal Brexit.”
He added, “For areas such as London, which are the competitiveness leaders, they face a danger of becoming less affordable and accessible to the majority. On the other hand, there will be parts of the UK that will become increasingly disadvantaged due to a lack of opportunities for growth.” The UK Competitiveness Index measures current economic competitiveness across local and regional areas of Britain based on a basket of economic indicators.
Its current findings show that the nine most competitive places in the UK are in London, with the City of London in the leading position, followed by Westminster, Camden, and Tower Hamlets. The least competitive localities are Blaenau Gwent and Anglesey in Wales, with Mansfield being the least competitive place in England. As well as London, much of the UK's competitiveness is concentrated in urban areas such as Bristol, Manchester and Cardiff. After the London boroughs, St Albans, which has benefited from an increase in its industrial specialisation, is the next most competitive city.
Professor Huggins also said, “To ensure all parts of the UK economy survive in these difficult conditions, urgent action needs to be taken by governments and policymakers. Our data collected over the past two decades demonstrates how a lack of positive action can have lasting and serious consequences.”
