The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that European airlines will collectively lose $89bn (£72bn) in revenue. Since the last forecast a month ago, the anticipated revenue loss has increased by one-sixth. IATA says that the overall negative GDP impact in Europe is $452bn (£366bn) across Europe.
The association estimates that 6.7 million jobs are at risk. Its new analysis is based on a scenario of severe travel restrictions lasting for three months, with a gradual lifting of restrictions in domestic markets, followed by regional and intercontinental travel. The near-total shutdown of European aviation and cruising because of the coronavirus pandemic will cost the continent’s economies hundreds of billions of pounds, according to industry forecasts.
The worst-hit country is the UK, with 140 million fewer journeys and an estimated £21.1bn revenue loss – “risking almost 661,200 jobs and around $50.3bn (£40.8bn) in contribution to the UK economy”. That represents over £600 per person in damage to the British economy. Heathrow, previously Europe’s busiest airport, is now operating with only one runway and two of its four terminals closed. Germany is on course for the next-worst revenue loss, but this is only two-thirds of the UK figure. Spain, Italy and France are also set to lose heavily, with $115bn (£93bn) in economic damage between them.
