Indian exporters are looking at a 10-15% increase in goods exports, with some estimating overall exports to touch $900 billion this year, compared with around $780 billion during the last financial year. In fact, exporters and govt were eyeing $900 billion exports last year as well, but weak demand in the developed market and a fall in commodity prices meant that goods exports fell 3% to $437 billion, while services exports rose 5% to $341 billion, according to commerce department’s estimates.
Federation of Indian Export Organisations, the umbrella lobby group representing exporters, has estimated that during the current financial year, goods exports will rise to $500-510 billion while services exports will go up to $390-400 billion.
Despite a very challenging geopolitical and consequent logistics disruptions and freight hikes, the demand for tech-driven products and services are very high and even for lifestyle goods, it is picking up, particularly from advanced economies assuring us for a much better performance this fiscal,” Fieo DG Ajay Sahai said. Healthy goods exports will also bolster industrial production and overall economic activity.
There are, however, some concerns of a slowdown in services due to IT and IT enabled services, given that growth moderated to a three-year low in 2023-24. While policymakers are looking to diversify beyond IT, telecom and business services, to newer segments such as tourism and healthcare, there is a demand for restoring the scheme to ensure that refunds taxes.
On the goods side, exporters appear more confident and are putting in place a strategy to move away from traditional markets. Garment exporters, for instance, are looking to tap into markets such as Mexico, Brazil, Poland and other east European countries as it seeks to diversify away from the US and Europe, its traditional focus areas, said Apparel Export Promotion Council chairman Sudhir Sekhri.
Pharma Export Promotion Council’s Dinesh Dua is budgeting for a minimum growth of at least 10% to close the current fiscal year with $31-32 billion on strong demand from the US. Besides, he sees good demand coming from Africa and Latin America and dismisses the concerns over quality issues. “Steps taken by govt and some of the industry bodies will ensure that pharma exports maintain the quality,” he said.
