Why Politics is like dangerously like the stock market

The biggest problem in any political campaign is you see things as you want to see them to bolster your pre-existing views. When I lectured on Behavioural Finance at Oxford (that bit of Finance which explains why the credit crunch actually happened – because of human nature) I would warn investors of picking from the news those bits which supported their pre-existing investments. It’s the same in politics.
The problem is, and just ask Neil Kinnock in 1992 at the Sheffield rally, you start believing your own hype. It leads to complacency, even arrogance and you lose sight of objectivity. So here are some objective tips to the parties:
1.      Conservatives are weak on the Labour attack of ‘business uncertainty over a referendum’ – they need to counter this quick, not because business owners may switch to Labour, but because people may think their jobs are in danger. The counter is business owners saying the Tories are better for jobs. Its jobs that win marginals.
2.      Conservatives need to be careful how they position ‘Labour would spend more’ – there are many people who will see that as a windfall for them, many people who may not be Labour voters, for instance employees of big public service contractors. And this is the card Labour are playing.
3.      The SNP are right to swing to their extreme wing – they need to win as many seats as possible to have influence and know this is the way to do it. Labour know they will turn to the SNP in a coalition and will not put up any serious fight or resources in Scotland.
4.      The Tories in the last election needed to win twice as many seats as in 1979 from Labour, and that was their largest swing from Labour in history – and they nearly did it. This time, they need to win 23 marginals from Labour (and keep all they have). That is the battleground and the 23 weakest seats just under that.
5.      In each election there are a few key moments. In the US it was ‘You are no Kennedy’; ‘Read my lips, no new taxes’, in Britain it has been ‘Labour isn’t working’. That knock out punch will be on the economy – that under the Conservatives – more money in working family’s pockets and not more money for the biggest banks and the richest individuals (the banks don’t have a vote, and rich are two few to matter). That is the mood of the nation. Then you just keep repeating it.
Alpesh Patel,
www.politicalanimal.me