Dear Financial Voice Reader,
I get about a hundred financial reports a week from various banks. The key is to distil the relevant and important from the detail and unimpactful. For me clarity is not a problem and here a dose of it for those who are confused.
Despite the US Government shutdown, and tariff wars, the reports are surprisingly bullish and positive. Based on valuations and on outlook either these bankers are overoptimistic or stupid or both. That is possible.
This tells me that American stocks will in the New Year rise because there prices have been depressed compared to the profits they are making. So I like US stocks.
When I look at specifics like Apple, I can with analysis it is undervalued! That is, I expect to double my money over the coming five years with it. Amazon is another easy one to like.
How could I possible comment on the UK? Am I to say that the uncertainty is irrelevant and that the economy will be resilient and exports helped from the depressed pound make buying UK stocks a good idea.
Or am I to say – Brexit. All bets are off? I will go for the former analysis. As for Europe – I think it too is resilient and has that resilience built into the system from the credit crunch.
Now, I don’t like uncertainty, but we always find ourselves with that one way or another anyway don’t we? Resilience and preparing for the worst and hoping for the best is the only way in life and financial markets – no secret potion or tip there.
As for India, with elections and all, no matter how far the pound falls, the Rupee never seems to get stronger of the longer term sadly. We still see no prospect of much of the economy opening up and that puts a drag on the much needed foreign capital. You may not see that as a problem, but it does mean slower growth. India is no China with a wealth of overseas capital from its exports. And unless India suddenly discovers the oil of Saudi, capital will remain in short supply.
I do have one tip for India, taken from many a company – rebrand. Change the name to Bharat.
Alpesh Patel
