In 1971 India faced 10million refugees entering its borders. The UN belatedly recognised the genocide by the Pakistani Army in East Pakistan. It became clear to the Western media, the UK, US that India would enter East Pakistan. They all rallied to criticise India’s humanitarian military invasion as the East Pakistanis begged for Indian assistance. Indira Gandhi asked on BBC TV “What would you have me do as women are raped and men butchered”. This Hindu woman probably saved more Muslim lives than any Muslim woman in history in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan or elsewhere.
Memories in India last long that the West stood by, indeed sought to assist Pakistan and threaten India. And the USSR is seen as the only protector India had. That to many Indians is like the memory of World War 2 and UK-US relationship since. Consider 70% of India’s armaments come from Russia – cheaper then Western ones, and better than indigenous ones for now.
That is the context to today. But today’s Russia is not the USSR and friends tell friends when they are wrong. Indeed, India did at the UN, but not in its voting.
India abstained from the Ukraine vote at the UN. Have they underestimated how badly this could go for India in the future? Whilst their membership of the security council of the UN is temporary, their alliances with Russia and the West may be too. In trying to sit on the fence, have they shot themselves in the foot - to mix metaphors?
As the world looks on in horror at the conflict in Ukraine, India has an extra reason to feel uncomfortable. Russia vetoed the UN Security Council resolution calling Moscow to withdraw its troops. However, India — alongside China and UAE — abstained from the vote.
India was concerned enough about the situation to begin bringing home any citizens caught up in the conflict. It condemned the invasion but stopped short of voting. Similarly, the UAE abstained, calling the vote a "foregone conclusion".
All of this happened at a time when India was growing closer to the West. However, since the time of the Cold War, India has relied on Moscow for advanced weapons. For years, it's juggled its relationship with the US and Russia. But the decision to abstain has made that standpoint more difficult.
Russia is being hit with debilitating sanctions and widespread denunciation. US President Joe Biden has suggested that any country that fails to stake a stand against Putin will be "stained by association".
After, he cryptically acknowledged India's stance, telling the media, "We haven't resolved that completely".
PM Modi has urged a resolution be reached through "sincere dialogue". The Russian embassy in India has praised New Delhi's stance. The Indian-Russian relationship seems strong.
However, difficult times lie ahead. Effective Russian sanctions will impact the Indian economy. Perhaps more concerning is the possibility of secondary sanctions on corporations and banks in China that continue to trade with Russia.
It's clear that Putin's invasion of Ukraine will put many Asian countries in a difficult spot. Additionally, Russia (in its past life as USSR) has a track record of protecting India from UN censure. It vetoed sanctions against India over Kashmir (1957), Goa (1962) and the Bangladesh War (1971).
But will there be consequences for India's loyalty?
India's close relations with Russia has put New Delhi in a difficult position. Major Western powers see India as a critical ally amid tensions with China. This situation has seen India look forward to several promising opportunities that align with Modi's vision to modernise the country.
However, standing on the fence in the EU vote could create a sense of mistrust against India. If tensions escalate, there may come a time when the West asks the questions, "are you with us, or against us?". Geopolitical and economic considerations will ensure that's a difficult question to answer. The pivot of the West to India to protect against China will in any event be refocussed on the EU-US-Nato alliance now. Russia met PM Khan on the day of the Ukraine invasion. Russia will play China and Pakistan against India and India with long memories of 1971 will chase Russia.
I have a vested interest being British Indian in seeing India move closer to countries which share its values focussed on human rights, liberalism, anti-authoritarian, democratic - not countries which no longer exist and from a bygone era. The world has moved on. So should India. India does not have an ally like the UK does with the US or the EU and Nato.
But shunning them because it did the right thing in 1971 well before the West thought in humanitarian terms means it should again take the moral lead and those who follow India can follow and those who for their Machiavellian or political reasons do not, so be it. Then there is the knee-jerk reaction
India should stand for what is right not what is expedient. It’s being left behind by looking backward. Wars which begin in Europe tend to spread and involve India. She is connected through her diaspora, it’s people in political high office and trade and investment to the West let alone values – Indian values shared with the West. China and Russia cannot replace that.
This is also a wake-up call for India and not just the complacent West. India needs to accelerate its indigenous defence industries.
