On Sunday, May 9, after the Scottish election results and the SNP victory, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was interviewed on BBC Andrew Marr show. It seems that Scotland is once again set for a referendum on independence.
Environment Secretary, George Eustice said that the UK Parliament is the 'only body that can grant a referendum' on Scottish independence and that now is "not the time for constitutional tinkering and another divisive referendum".
When pressed by Andrew Marr, Nicola Sturgeon admitted that her party is yet to calculate the financial impact of an independent Scotland. The First Minister also said an economic assessment would need to be completed closer to the time for it to be accurate and they will keep the UK currency, overseen by the Bank of England for the foreseeable future after independence. Nicola Sturgeon should be forced to disclose the true cost of Scottish independence.
Scotland is the second-largest country in the United Kingdom and accounted for 8.3% of the population in 2019. The Kingdom of Scotland emerged as an independent sovereign state in the Early Middle Ages and continued to exist until 1707. Scotland is one of Europe's oldest nations. Following the integration of the Parliament of England and Wales and the Parliament of Scotland in 1707, Scotland remained a nation within the new Union state. In the last referendum, the question was, "Should Scotland be an independent country?", which voters answered with "Yes" or "No". The "No" side won with 55.3%voting against independence and 44.7% voting in favour.
Here we look at some of the ways that the No campaign will convince people to vote to stay in the United Kingdom if there is a second referendum:
1. Economy: Sustainability of independent Scotland
In the year 2001/12, Scotland’s North Sea Oil was doing so well that the tax revenues were worth more than £9 billion to the economy. By the year 2019/20, the last time that the figures were assessed, revenue had been virtually wiped out by the global fall in the price of oil. We need to ask the tough question of independent Scotland’s economy and its financial sustainability. The Scottish Lib Dems summarised the reaction to these figures late last year when they said the revenue plunge showed independence was a “huge gamble”.
2. Scotland gets more than a fair share from the UK
One of the fundamental reasons, economically, for Scotland to remain a part of the 300-year-old Union is simple. Even though Scotland’s block grant has been cut by Westminster, it still remains a fact (and a bugbear of some English MPs) that Scotland gets more per head in public services spending than England.£10,536 is spent each year on people in Scotland, is £1,460 per person more than the UK average of £9,076. As Kezia Dugdale powerfully concluded on the publication of these figures, “People were misled by the SNP in the run-up to the referendum and that is unforgivable.”
3. Scotland is not that different politically from the UK
It is a myth of modern nationalism that Scotland is in some way more egalitarian than the rest of our neighbours on the British Isles. It has become a popular refrain that after Brexit, and successive Tory Governments, that Scotland is fundamentally divergent politically from the rest of Britain. A study by Ailsa Henderson on political attitudes in the UK found that “in no case are there significant differences between Scotland and England.”
4. Scotland is safer in the UK
The Foreign Office made a detailed if controversial, intervention at the height of the 2014 campaign on Britain after separation. They noted that enemies of Britain would use “uncertainty and distraction” in the wake of a Yes vote to manipulate the situation for their own ends. We are also protected from threats as broad as ISIS and domestic terror incidents by Britain’s world-renowned intelligence services. Sir John Scarlett, former Mi6 chief, said of the SNP’s intelligence proposals in 2014 that “in my view, the Scottish government proposals will not offer the level of protection and support currently provided.”
5. UK and EU
BREXIT is already in a delicate negotiation and constitutional situation, and Scotland re-joining the EU will raise even more uncertainty. Scotland without the UK is in a weaker position to re-negotiate with the EU. Ruth Davidson described the “independence because of Brexit” option as the political equivalent of “amputating your foot because you’ve stubbed your toe.”
6. British identity
As uncomfortable as it might be for Scottish Nationalists, most people in the country still feel an emotional connection to Britain. English and Scottish speak the same language, share so much history, and there is something about Britain as a concept that just appeals to people, even those who believe Scotland is a country.
In fact, the amount of Scottish people who feel British has increased since the 2014 vote: the numbers of those describing themselves as “more British than Scottish” and “equally Scottish and British” have both risen.
7. Residency and Passport
Nearly half a million English people were resident in Scotland at the time of the last referendum – would we really want them to have to produce passports to visit their family back home? Alistair Darling summed this up in 2013 when he said: “We’ve got friends and relations north and south of the border and we don’t want to make each other foreigners.”
8. The UK’s achievements in sport
Scotland contributes to great UK sporting achievements like those of Chris Hoy and Andy Murray, with the sporting stars of the future gaining access to relatively generous funding. Scotland also shares in the glory of British athletes when they do well for everyone in the UK – would Scotland deprive themselves of being represented by legends like Mo Farah? That is before we even mention the many cultural achievements of Britain, which Scotland has had more than a hand in contributing to. Hoy himself even said in 2013 that a separate Scotland Olympic team would make it “harder for the Scottish athletes”.
9. The UK’s clout on the global stage
Britain in global terms is a relatively small country with a relatively small population – but is still reaping the rewards of being a world power. Britain is a member of the G8 and G20, representing one of the biggest economies in the world, even after the COVID pandemic. Scotland’s interests are also represented at the UN, as one of only five permanent members of the UN Security Council. David Cameron, in one of his speeches, said that we were “stronger together, and we have more clout as a result of our seat on the Security Council.” And thus Scotland is punching above its weight. This year’s COP summit’s Presidency is an example of the UK's leadership on the global stage.
10. UK and Commonwealth
As a leading nation in the Commonwealth, the UK is in a unique and privileged position. As Americans are learning to their cost, building walls is not the right way either to rebuild an economy or to revitalize a nation. A border between Scotland and England would only serve to isolate Scotland from its dearest friends and closest allies, a physical embodiment of the divisions that a Yes vote represents.
